Liberal Leadership Final Results

Scott Brison is the kiss of Death:

As a Conservative moved to Jim Prentice - Prentice Drops Off the ballot
Moved unanimous support of Peter Mackay and the PC Party - the party folds

So Brison Becomes a Liberal

Becomes a Liberal Cabinet Minister - The Liberals lose power
Goes to Bob Rae - Ray Drops off
Goes to Michael Ignatieff - Iggy Drops off.

Now I can only assume that Brison supports Dion.

Too bad for Dion.

I will post my final thoughts on this whole thing tomorrow - I'm politic'ed out for the day!

Yeah, Yeah, I was wrong. Sue me.

Liberal Leadership Third Ballot Results

My new third ballot prediction:

New 3rd ballot Prediction
--------------------------
37.2% - Ignatieff
35.0% - Dion
27.8% - Rae


Actual Results
-----------------------
37.0% - Dion
34.5% - Iggnatief
28.5% - Rae

I got the Rae part right but the other two have basically switched.

Rae drops off and I think he will go to Iggnatief. As long as 55% of Rae's people go to Iggy then Iggy can still win

Liberal Leadership Predictions Update

Kennedy Supports Dion!

Well, my prediction has gone to hell in a handbasket. In terms of the specifics.

My old 4th ballot prediction was as follows:

4th Ballot
----------------
43.9% - Ignatieff
29.2% - Rae
26.9% - Kennedy

Now with Kennedy out and supporting Dion I had to re-run some numbers. Most of Kennedy's supporters WILL go to Dion but enough will bleed to Iggy and Rae to keep it interesting.

New 3rd ballot Prediction
--------------------------
37.2% - Ignatieff
35.0% - Dion
27.8% - Rae

Rae will then drop off and support Iggy. So Iggy in 4 rather than Iggy in 5.

Maybe.

This is all pure specuation at this point

Liberal Leadership Second Ballot Results

1st ballot - My Prediction - Actual - Difference
-----------------------------------------------------
Ignatieff -- 36.3% - 31.6% - 4.7% short
Rae ------- 23.6% - 24.1% - .5% over
Dion ------ 18.3% - 20.8% - 2.5% short
Kennedy-- 17.3% - 18.8% - 1.5% over
Dryden --- 04.0% - 4.7% - 0.7% over

Iggy is still a little short but we are on pace for an Iggy in 5 victory. I see some deviation from my prediction if Kennedy drops and goes to Dion before the next ballot but I imagine that they will wait and see if they can get Dryden's people - which will move them ahead of Dion as per my prediction.

My prediction all hangs on the next ballot - either I am completly right from here on in or it all goes to hell in a handbasket

Liberal Leadership First Ballot Results

1st ballot - My Prediction - Actual - Difference
-----------------------------------------------------
Ignatieff - 33.3% - 29.3% - 4% short
Rae ------ 20.8% - 20.3% - .5% short
Dion ------ 17.2% - 17.8% - .6% short
Kennedy-- 16.4% - 17.7% - 1.3% over
Dryden --- 04.5% - 4.9% - 0.4% over
Volpe ----- 03.4% - 3.2% - 0.2% under
Brison ---- 03.2% - 4.0% - 0.8% over
Findlay --- 01.2% - 2.7% - 1.5% over

I got all the order right except for Brison and Volpe - but Volpe announced he was dropping off before people went into vote.

You will note that I called the Dion/Kennedy Switch

So far my prediction is on track - Iggy in 5 ballots.

Liberal Leadership Speechs

Quick Notes:

Dryden was good but spent to much time talking about hockey.

Iggy sucked ass, it was just a bunch of applause lines tacked together

Dion's speech was arlight but not overwhelming

Kennedy and Rae gave barnburners and Rae without notes!

In my opinion Bryson's was the best speech of the night but I guess that is why I am a dipper - give me a bunch of policy and discussion of issues over talking about who can win any day of the week.

:-)

Liberal Leadership Delegate Update

According to the Iggy Camp (via Kinsella) the following are the numbers of registered delegates:

(The percentage numbers are percentage of total registered delegates)

Michael Ignatieff ------ 1059 (31.7%)
Bob Rae --------------- 689 (20.6%)
Gerard Kennedy ------ 619 (18.5%)
Stéphane Dion --------- 550 (16.5%)
Ken Dryden ----------- 161 (4.8%)
Scott Brison ----------- 125 (3.7%)
Joe Volpe ------------- 105 (3.1%)
Martha Hall-Findlay -- 33 (1.0%)

I assume this does not include ex-officio delegates so this is just a rough estimate of the first ballot

Final Liberal Leadership Predictions

This is largely speculation and the application of a bit of mathematical analysis based on previous convention track records

1st ballot
-----------------
33.3% - Ignatieff
20.8% - Rae
17.2% - Dion
16.4% - Kennedy
04.5% - Dryden
03.4% - Volpe
03.2% - Brison
01.2% - Findlay


2nd Ballot
---------------
36.3% - Ignatieff
23.6% - Rae
18.3% - Dion
17.3% - Kennedy
04.0% - Dryden


3rd Ballot
-----------------
37.1% - Ignatieff
24.7% - Rae
19.8% - Kennedy
18.4% - Dion


4th Ballot
----------------
43.9% - Ignatieff
29.2% - Rae
26.9% - Kennedy


5th Ballot
----------------
55.7% - Ignatieff
44.3% - Rae


Final Result - Iggy victory on the 5th ballot

Liberal Leadership Race for 5th Place

From the Rick Mercer Report

enjoy

A Mathematical Model for Predicting the Liberal Leadership

Problem: Can we create a mathematical model for predicting the outcome of the Liberal Leadership race in December?

Answer: Yes (with some important caveats)

Since the Liberal Leadership numbers have been preying on my mind lately I decided to go back and re-read some sections of Do Conventions Matter : Choosing National Party Leaders in Canada by a professor of Political Studies at the University of Saskatchewan named John Courtney. (Full disclosure: I took a class from Mr. Courtney and was not overly impressed with him, but I think his work in this field is stellar) He looks at the 19 leadership races (of all Federal parties) between 1919 and 1993 and draws some statistical interferences.

There are a couple of statistical trends that he examines in his book that will help us shed some light on the Liberal’s December convention.

Note: I am NOT a liberal and am not part of one leadership camp or another. I am doing this as an exercise in political prognostication and for fun, not to promote one candidate ahead of the others. Also note, we are dealing with STATISTICS and PROBABILITY here people, not crystal balls and tarot decks. If you want certainty, go read a blogging tory blog, I deal with reality :-)

Point 1: Number of Ballots

Assuming that there are 8 people on the 1st ballot then according to table 10-2 in the book (page 353) there is a 19% chance of there only being 2-3 ballots and an 81% chance of their being more than 3 ballots. Assuming that Volpe drops out because he can’t pay his 20,000 fine and/or some of the other “can’t wins” decide they are going to throw their support behind somebody while it still makes a difference (i.e. before convention starts) then we could have a few as 6 people on the ballot at convention. If that is the case there is 51% chance of a 2-3 ballot affair and a 49% chance of a 4-5 ballot affair.

Conclusion: It is safe to say that there will be between 3 to 5 ballots

Point 2: Initial Support of Eventual Winner

Since we can conclude above that there will be between 3 to 5 ballots, let’s look at what support is need on the first ballot to win. Courtney breaks conventions up into categories based on the number of ballots. We will look at his analysis from table 10-1 (page 352) for the cases of 3 ballots, 4 ballots and 5 ballots.

In the case of a 3 ballot convention, the eventual winners had had an average of 43.7% support on the first ballot and ended up with 54% of the final support.

In the case of a 4 or 5 ballot convention, the eventual winners had an average of 27.9% on the first ballot and ended up with 55.3% of the final support

Conclusion 1: The winner will only need approximately 55% of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd choice support to win.

Conclusion 2: Only candidates who have close to 27.9% on the first ballot can win.


Point 3: Initial Ranking and Final Ranking

If you look at table 10-6 on page 356 you will find a very interesting statistic. Of all the leadership conventions that were discussed in the book; 85% of eventual winners were in first place on the first ballot and only 15% of winners were not first on the first ballot. However, the one factor that remains constant is that “the candidate who gains the largest share of votes from the first ballot to the second ballot is the eventual winner” (page 231)

Conclusion: There is an 85% change the person who is first place going in will win and if he does not then it will be due to another candidate getting a huge bump in-between the 1st and 2nd ballots.


Final Conclusion

The race will take between 3-5 ballots and thus the eventual winner needs approximately 27% of the vote on the first ballot to win. There is an 85% chance that the person in first place will win and the only way that that will not happen is if one of the candidates with a significant amount of support drops out and throws his support behind another candidate to create the largest increase in support between ballots.

So, after all that, we come across Paul Wells who just throws it all down without doing any sort of statistical analysis:

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“So Ignatieff doesn't need anyone's endorsement; he just needs support to bleed to him at the rate of one delegate in four. And he's been getting that all through this piece: when Hedy Fry and Carolyn Bennett went to Bob Rae, they failed to bring all their support with them. In the normal course of events, Ignatieff can expect to lure one previously unsympathetic delegate in four. Which means he can expect to win this.

The only way to stop him is to interrupt the normal course of events.

One of the second-tier candidates (Rae Kennedy Dion) would have to turn this race into a referendum on whether it is acceptable for Michael Ignatieff to become the Liberals' next leader. And the only way to demonstrate that the whole campaign should turn on that single question would be to pull out of the race immediately and throw to another second-tier candidate.

*SNIP*

Kennedy's going to throw to him? Rae's going to throw to him? Nope. The near-perfect three-way Mexican standoff among Rae, Kennedy and Dion gives each man reason to hope, and therefore to stay in. And therefore to ensure Ignatieff's momentum isn't braked.

For each of the Second Three, and I am sad to say for Dion especially, the only question now is: Is it acceptable for Michael Ignatieff to become the next Liberal leader? If it is acceptable -- not ideal, not one's fondest wish, but simply a result that falls short of catastrophe -- Dion, Rae and Kennedy should stay in the race and try their chances. By staying in, they will probably ensure his eventual victory.

But if any of the Second Three believes Ignatieff must be stopped, they need to get out to make it happen.

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I guess that’s why he writes for Macleans and I’m just a blogger , eh?

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Vote for this post on progressive bloggers

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Ranking the Blogs' Liberal Leadership Prediction Abilities

I have all my predictions and analysis of the Liberal Leadership Race here for you to review

As I said in one of my earlier posts I believe in the wisdom of crowds. So my technique for predicting the Liberal Leadership Delegate Numbers was to take all of the analysis of the others that I could find and then average them together. This would act as a "stock market" or averaging of all of the sources of Data.

For interest's sake, as both an analysis of this method of predicting political outcomes, and as a bit of a hat tip to the people who gave me the data, I present:

The Prognosticator Award - Liberal Leadership Delegate Selection Division

So I will list each of the people/organizations who's work I used. I will list their estimate, followed by the actual results, then the average deviation from the results and then my analysis of their prognostication abilities :-)

Entry 1: Cerberus

	Actual	Prediction	Diff
Ignatieff	29.80%	24.00%	5.80%
Kennedy	16.80%	19.00%	-2.20%
Rae	19.80%	19.00%	0.80%
Dion	16.60%	14.00%	2.60%
Dryden	4.60%	8.00%	-3.40%
Brison	3.90%	7.00%	-3.10%
Volpe	4.60%	6.00%	-1.40%
Hall-Findlay	1.00%	3.00%	-2.00%

Average deviation: 2.7%
Worst Estimate: 5.8% underestimate for Ignatieff

Cerberus had pretty good numbers but (like most) he underestimated Iggy (Which is odd, given that he is an Ignatieff supporter). Nothing to be ashamed of, but not quite our winner


Entry 2: Jason Cherniak (note that he gave ranges and I took the average of the range)

	Actual	Prediction	Diff
Ignatieff	29.80%	27.50%	2.30%
Kennedy	16.80%	22.50%	-5.70%
Rae	19.80%	15.00%	4.80%
Dion	16.60%	13.50%	3.10%
Dryden	4.60%	8.00%	-3.40%
Brison	3.90%	9.00%	-5.10%
Volpe	4.60%	6.00%	-1.40%
Hall-Findlay	1.00%	3.00%	-2.00%

Average deviation: 3.5%
Worst Estimate: 5.7% overestimate for Kennedy (even if you allow Jason his "range" Kennedy was still outside it)

Given that Jason was using ranges it is a bit unfair to him to use his average deviation against him, but......oh well :-) Still, as you will see, he did better than some

Entry 3: democraticSPACE

Update: (I was using earlier numbers from this site and somehow, due to my own stupidity, didn't use the most up-to-date numbers, Greg was quick to point out, and rightly so, that his final numbers were far more accurate than I was giving him credit for - I leave my initial numbers up becasue that is what is used for my calculations at the bottom, however, Greg's numbers that he included in the comments section are the ones you should use for him - he had the most accurate numbers and should have been awarded the winner - all I can say is...Whoops!
No slight was intended for Greg and I was foolish to think that my numerical ability was anything close to him , or many of the others making predictions )

	Actual	Prediction	Diff
Ignatieff	29.80%	24.20%	5.60%
Kennedy	16.80%	16.90%	-0.10%
Rae	19.80%	14.30%	5.50%
Dion	16.60%	13.50%	3.10%
Dryden	4.60%	9.20%	-4.60%
Brison	3.90%	9.90%	-6.00%
Volpe	4.60%	6.60%	-2.00%
Hall-Findlay	1.00%	3.60%	-2.60%

Average deviation: 3.6%
Worst Estimate: 6.0% oversupport for Brison

[section deleted due to my own stupidity as explained above]

OOPS!

Greg pointed out that he had more up-to-date numbers than the ones that I was using. I inlcude those here for you (from his comments):

IGGY 29.8 / 26.8 / 3.0
RAE 19.8 / 18.2 / 1.6
KENNEDY 16.8 / 15.1 / 1.7
DION / 16.6 / 16.4 / 0.2
DRYDEN / 4.6 / 9.1 / +4.5
BRISON / 3.9 / 5.8 / +1.9
VOLPE / 4.6 / 4.7 / +0.1
HALL FINDLAY / 1.0 / 2.5 / +1.5
Average deviation: 1.8
Worst Deviation: 4.5% over-support for Dryden

Much better showing for him then many of the others. In fact, if I had been paying attention then I would have had even better numbers in my avergaing anaysis.

mea culpa!


Entry 4: delegate.count

		Actual	Prediction	Diff
	Ignatieff	29.80%	33.11%	-3.31%
	Kennedy	16.80%	17.95%	-1.15%
	Rae	19.80%	14.38%	5.42%
	Dion	16.60%	18.37%	-1.77%
	Dryden	4.60%	7.45%	-2.85%
	Brison	3.90%	4.96%	-1.06%
	Volpe	4.60%	2.33%	2.27%
	Hall-Findlay	1.00%	1.45%	-0.45%

Average deviation: 2.3%
Worst Estimate: 5.4% underestimation of Rae

More of a tracking site than a prediction site, but he did do some "regional adjsutments" and other stuff to predict the outcome. Actually did quite good. The only site to come close to predicting Iggy's suport. Best of all the blogger that we have seen so far (one is better, but you will have to wait)

Entry 5: The Strategic Counsel/CTV/Globe&Mail poll

	Actual	Prediction	Diff
Ignatieff	29.80%	19.00%	10.80%
Kennedy	16.80%	9.00%	7.80%
Rae	19.80%	17.00%	2.80%
Dion	16.60%	13.00%	3.60%
Dryden	4.60%	9.00%	-4.40%
Brison	3.90%	3.00%	0.90%
Volpe	4.60%	3.00%	1.60%
Hall-Findlay	1.00%	3.00%	-2.00%

Average deviation: 4.2%
Worst Estimate: 10% underestimation of Ignatieff

One of two entries from the MSM and, as usual, they got it totaly wrong. Every blogger in the race beat them both on average and in almost every specific. Moral = blogs rule, polls suck.

Entry 6: The Gandalf Group (i.e. David Herle, the Liberal's Pollster/Campaign Manager)

	Actual	Prediction	Diff
Ignatieff	29.80%	13.00%	16.80%
Kennedy	16.80%	7.00%	9.80%
Rae	19.80%	19.00%	0.80%
Dion	16.60%	8.00%	8.60%
Dryden	4.60%	19.00%	-14.40%
Brison	3.90%	4.00%	-0.10%
Volpe	4.60%	1.00%	3.60%
Hall-Findlay	1.00%	1.00%	0.00%

Average deviation: 6.73%
Worst Estimate: 16% underestimation of Ignatieff

This was just sad. Very, very sad. The Liberals should hire any of the blogger above (or our winner below) to be thier pollster for the next election.

Entry 7: Our Winner - Calgary Grit

	Actual	Prediction	Diff
Ignatieff	29.80%	26.70%	3.10%
Kennedy	16.80%	17.70%	-0.90%
Rae	19.80%	17.90%	1.90%
Dion	16.60%	14.60%	2.00%
Dryden	4.60%	7.20%	-2.60%
Brison	3.90%	6.30%	-2.40%
Volpe	4.60%	7.80%	-3.20%
Hall-Findlay	1.00%	1.90%	-0.90%

Average deviation: 2.2%
Worst Estimate: 3% underestimation of Ignatieff

Calgary Grit has the lowest deviation and a pretty low worst-guess. He was closer on Iggy than most as well (good, given that he is a Kennedy supporter) . He absolutly kicked the ass of the MSM abuot six ways from Sunday and edged out the rest of the bloggers.

Results of Averaging

So I took the average for each delegate percentage (see my work in the link at the top of the post) and the results confirm my methodology:

	Actual	Prediction	Diff
Ignatieff	29.80%	25%	4.80%
Kennedy	16.80%	17%	-0.20%
Rae	19.80%	19%	0.80%
Dion	16.60%	15%	1.60%
Dryden	4.60%	9%	-4.40%
Brison	3.90%	6%	-2.10%
Volpe	4.60%	5%	-0.40%
Hall-Findlay	1.00%	2%	-1.00%

Average deviation: 1.9%
Worst Estimate: 5% underestimation of Ignatieff

The wisdom of crowds resulted in the lowest deviation from the actual results and the only points that were out worse than any others were the Dryden/Iggy numbers.

Yes, this was the most accurate, but it was only due to the hard work and dilligance of the other bloggers. Hat tip to all those who put work into the process and gave us the numbers to play with that they did.

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Liberal Leadership Analysis - Province by Province

I will be back tomorrow with an analysis of my estimates along with the other sites that I gathered data from and I will crown someone the best predictor so stay tuned.

For now, let's look at the data from each province:

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Newfoundland
-----------------

Winner: Rae (30%)

Good Showing: Dryden (14%), Iggy (30%)

Disappointed: Kennedy (10%), Dion (6%), Brison (0%)

Well, if you listen to Kinsella then "there's a reason why Bob Rae is strongest in Newfoundland and BC. It's because they are the furthest points from Ontario. " Funny, but I doubt it is the truth. I have to think that is is somewhat due to Allan MacEachen's support. You would have thought that some of Brison's "Atlantic Appeal" would have bled over, but nope.


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Nova Scotia
-----------------

Winner: Brison (40%)

Good Showing: Iggy (37%)

This was Brison's only source of support across the country and even then, Iggy came within 5 delegates of beating him. The rumours were that Brison had this one all sewn up and that he would get more than 3% of the total number of delegates from his strength in Nova Scotia alone according to the Halifax newspaper but that was not the case. Iggy must have a pretty good team in place here to compete with Brison.


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New Brunswick
-----------------

Winner: Iggy (34%)

Good Showing: Rae (14%)

Disappointed: Dion (14%), Brison (9.5%)

Rae gets a "good showing" while Dion gets a "disappointed" for the same percentage because of the Francaphonie factor. Dion should have done better in NB. And again, Brison can't get traction outside his home province.


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PEI
-----------------

Winner: Rae (41%)

Good Showing: Kennedy (21%) Iggy (20%)

Disappointed: Brison (1.5%)

First province with Kennedy support (to bad it's the smallest one) and again, Brison with no cross-border support. You will note that Iggy has shown well in all the Atlantic provinces - the only candidate to do so.


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Quebec
-----------------

Winner: Iggy (38%)

Good Showing: Dion (29%) Rae (23%)

Disappointed: Kennedy (1.7%), Dryden (1.3%)

This should be more of a story than it seems to be. Iggy won Quebec. Everyone seems to be focusing on Kennedy's abysmal showing. Kinsella calls it "Kennedy’s astonishing crash-and-burn in Quebec" and Chantal Hebert says, "Gerard Kennedy's dismal absence from the Quebec radar"
means that he is out of it.

But no one points out that Iggy won the damn province - placing almost 10 points ahead of Dion. For a Liberal Party that want's to rebuild in QB, this is the sign they have been waiting for. This stat alone will result in a TON of ex officio support from MP's and assorted hangers on at convention and they have like 800 some votes so it is an important block of votes. I don't see how Iggy doesn't win at this opint base on this fact alone.


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Ontario
-----------------

Winner: Iggy (28%)

Good Showing: Kennedy (27%)

DiDisappointedRae (17%), Dion (10%)

Kennedy is a former cabinet minister who had a lot of provincial and federal MP's and MLA's elected and he had a provincial leadership organization at one point. In other words, on the ground, in the trenchs, he should have been impossible to beat.

Iggy beat him. Not by much, but be enough. This means that Iggy placed first in both Ontario and Quebec. He will get 600-700 of the 800 ex officios for this. You might as well shut 'er down, cause Iggy has won.

Rae proves that he cannot win Ontario (amongst Liberals) where he should have the best name recognition and ground support. This is a damming indictment of Rae and will cause people to look twice at supporting him on future ballots.


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Manitoba
-----------------

Winner: Rae (31.5%)

Good Showing: Iggy (23.5%) Dryden (14.8%)

Disappointed: Kennedy (14%), Dion (6%)

This was Kennedy's home province (he is from The Pas) and he placed 4th! Behind Dryden for crying out loud! This and Ontario, and Quebec spells the death knell for Kennedy.

Rae had a good on-the-ground team (I'm told) with some good endorsements to win, and Iggy stayed int he game. Dryden's wierd numbers make this less of a predictor then it otherwise would be - any thoughts on that one?


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Saskatchewan
-----------------

Winner: Iggy (33%)

Good Showing: Rae (21%) Kennedy (18%)

DisappointedDion (15%)

Dion get a disappointed because of the the David Orchard Factor. If he can't deliver here then what the hell good is he? This is my home province and everyone that I talked to said that Rae had it sewn up. Iggy for the win was a surprise to me. The guy has strength everywhere.


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Alberta
-----------------

Winner: Kennedy(28%)

Good Showing: Iggy (25%) Dion (18%)

Disappointed:Rae (9%)

Rae got spanked by Dion in Alberta? Kennedy actually won a province? The only non-surprising thing here is that Iggy is right in the mix of things. The guy has support everywhere.


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BC
-----------------

Winner: Rae (29%)

Good Showing: Kennedy (20%) Dion (18%)

Disappointed: Iggy (17%)

Here is the capper. Iggy should be disappointed with a fourth place finish where he gets over 15% of the delegates. This is a BAD showing for him? It's better than some of the above "good showings" for the others. Face it - Iggy wins.

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So after all of that exhaustive analysis, what have I come up with? Iggy winning? Big deal. That's what everyone is saying:

As Cerberus points out:

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"He is the only candidate to show solid even leading strength in every province and territory."

and

"For those who repeat and repeat the cant that "Ignatieff has no room to grow", two things: (1) with such a huge lead, he doesn't have to have the "most" room to grow"

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Kinsella says:

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"Dion and Ignatieff will be the names on the final ballot. Going way, way out on a limb? Iggy has got a big, big lead."

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Chantal Hebert pipes in:

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"Ignatieff will need to get a second wind to prevail but he has the advantage both quantitatively and qualitatively going into the two-month stretch to the Montreal convention."

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Jeffry Simpson says the race is Iggy's to lose:

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"Better still for Mr. Ignatieff, the weekend score underestimates his strength. Many ex officio delegates -- including MPs and former candidates, senators and party officials who will automatically be given voting privileges at the convention -- disproportionately favour him.His first-ballot delegate score is likely closer to 35 per cent than 30."

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John Ivison of the National Post agrees:

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"The other obvious storyline is that Ignatieff has out-performed expectations, securing about 30% of delegates. When ex-officio members (current and former MPs and senators) and Aboriginal delegates are added, it is likely that this number will rise above 35%,"

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Don Martin trys to throw some cold water on it:

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"While Ignatieff can emerge confident after pulling ahead of the pack yesterday with an 11-point lead in elected delegates at this writing, there's no room for cockiness with potent Anyone-But-Iggy forces conspiring against him."

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But even he admits that the question is "who will end up becoming Ignatieff's kingmaker"

So that's all folks. Unless something changes, My predication is Iggy is the next leader of the Liberal Party

Liberal Leadership Final Delgate Predictions

I am leaving these up all weekend (nice way to get out of bloging for the weekend)

25% Ignatieff
19% Rae
17% Kennedy
15% Dion
9% Dryden
6% Brison
5% Volpe
2% Hall-Findlay


that is all

Liberal Leadership Delegate Predictions - Update

I posted my average calculations here earlier. This is my update with the new Star Poll and the other poll I reported on as well as Fry being taken out (not that that affected the numbers all that much)

It is a little hard to make out but I have Iggy in 1st with 25% and then Rae in 2nd with 17-18%.

We will see how acurate that is

Volpe and Crew - The Liberals worst Nightmare

As you may or may not have heard Joe Volpe is under attack for signing up dead members in Quebec.

The Star has the story and this great pic:

My question is, how many scandals and charges of corruption have to be leveled against a Candidate before the Liberals make him drop out of the race?

Is there really no such thing as too much corruption in the Liberal Party of Canada?

Update: It turns out that one of the experts on Liberal Party Corruption has spoken out and his answer to my question is no, no there is no such thing as too much corruption.

News Flash - Bob Rae supported the NDP

Apparently the Liberals weren't paying much attention to the actual histories of the different leadership candidates. Hence, this story "Rae gave money to NDP Candidates" is shocking.

Shocking, I say.

Who would of thought that an NDP premier would make donations to the NDP - other than Ujjal Dosanjh of course.

Some Liberal reactions from the article:

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Liberal MP Jim Karygiannis also said he has problems with the donations. "Playing the field until you sort of decide where you're going and say, 'There's an opportunity here for me,' I think doesn't sound right by a lot of people," he said.

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Yeah, no one likes a group of opportunists who won't take a hard stance on things and vacillate back and forth between right and left, and often appear left-wing but then reveal that they are not.

Ooops! Liberal ears are burning.

Liberal Leadership Delegate Predictions

Here are the predictions of people who actually know what they are talking about, the last column is my average of the numbers that other people have generated.

Note: for some reason there is a big gap here, you must scroll down - stupid blogger templates and formatting

	democraticSPACE	Cherniak	Cerberus	CalgaryGrit	delegate.count	Average
IGNATIEFF	27.5%	25-30%	24%	26.2%	33.59%	27.7%
KENNEDY	15.8%	20-25%	18%	18.5%	17.07%	19.1%
RAE	14.9%	10-20%	19%	15.9%	14.24%	15.7%
DION	13.4%	12-15%	14%	13.9%	18.91%	14.5%
BRISON	8.2%	8-10%	7%	6.5%	4.66%	7.4%
VOLPE	8.1%	4-8%	6%	10.2%	2.13%	6.4%
DRYDEN	7.7%	6-10%	8%	6.4%	7.64%	7.6%
HALL-FINDLAY	3.6%	2-4%	3%	2.0%	1.51%	2.7%
FRY	0.8%	0%	0.5%	0.5%	0.25%	0.3%

So it looks like conventional wisdom has Fry and Hall-Findlay being also-rans (Which I think everyone can agree with)

But what happens next?

Dryden, Volpe and Brison are the next tier - where do they go when they drop off?

I can't see Brison going to Iggy, not after the bad blood in those camps. But Rae and Kennedy are opposed to Brison's war support. I see him going to Dion

I also see Quebec hockey star Dryden going to Dion.

Volpe? Who knows. But if I'm right, then he get's his dream - to be the kingmaker

But if I am right and those two go to Dion, then he has the momentum to be in second place and the clear "anyone but Iggy" person.

Ray/Kennedy really need to stop this if they want to win. Bet your bottom dollar after the Delegate selection process that those camps are reaching out fast and hard.

Still anybody's guess at this point.

Liberal Leadership Numbers - New Poll

Hat tip to Paul Wells for this:

Here are the numbers that people in my neck of the woods need to care about. My anaysis will follow later but for now, I report, You decide :-)

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General Voters

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Liberal Voters

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General Voters

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Western Canada

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English Speaking

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Liberal Leadership Dropouts Prediction

The CBC lists the money raised by the different camps:

My analysis:





Cerberus has the following endorsements from Liberal MPs and Senators




If you set a reasonable(to me) threshold that you need at least 10% of the endorsements and 10% of the fundraising to be a serious contender then the only ones left are:

Rae, Ignatieff, Kennedy and Dion, and maybe Brison.

Expect Findlay, Fry, Bennet, and Dryden to all drop out before the convention.

Volpe want's to play kingmaker and so will stay in.