My take on the recent Poll Numbers
So everyone has been carrying on about the polling numbers from Saskatchewan:
The numbers suggest the Saskatchewan Party has the support of 54.2 per cent of decided voters, the NDP with 33.7 per cent of decided voters and the Liberals far behind with 8.1 per cent.
First of all, even the media is putting an important caveat on these poll numbers:
The samples aren't quite large enough to tell us whether or not, you know, what's happening specifically in Regina and Saskatoon
Secondly, this is reminiscent of the 1999 polls that showed the NDP with a 20 point lead and we all know how that turned out.
Now, before people accuse me of covering my eyes with my hands and ignoring reality, I admit that these types of polls have some validity and things are not looking good for the NDP.
However, in Regina I will stand by my prediction that only Wascana Plains is changing hands. Saskatoon is a different story. I think Eastview and Greystone are still fine (based on my local contacts) and I have always said that Meewasin will be going NDP. However, I am prepared to concede that Sutherland may be in the too-close-to-call category.
So if the NDP lose Wascana Plains and Sutherland, and they are in trouble in Yorkton, well, then that does not bode well for them. Even if they keep Meadow Lake, Sask Rivers and pick up Lloydminster (all still in the realm of possibility) they are still a couple of seats short of government.
I think it is looking likely that the Sask Party is going to form the next government, but I will stand by my claim that the final outcome is going to be a lot tighter than people think.
I think that Lloydmister is the only seat that could change into the NDP camp and I think that Yorkton, Sutherland and Wascana Plains are likely to go Sask Party. In the too-close-to-call camp remain Greystone, Eastview, Meadow Lake and Sask Rivers, but I think the NDP can (if things break in their favor amongst the undecided) hold all 4.
So here is my updated seat range:
Sask Party: 31 - 36
NDP: 24-29
Liberals: 0
I will work on narrowing that prediction down a little before e-day
(And by the way, when David Kawarcki said during the debate that he didn't think the NDP was going to form the government, Calvert's response should have been, "You aren't even going to win your own seat, so be quiet you goof and let the adults talk")
6 comments:
what leads you to believe that yorkton is going to change hands? from what i have heard the ndp are running a good campaign with a well respected candidate.
Jason, I hope you are right, and I would love to be proven wrong, but the polling numbers outside of Saskatoon and Regina are pretty bad for the NDP, Yorkton fits into that category.
in previous posts you did an election prediction that Humboldt was too close to call...is this still the case or do you feel one party has more strength now.
Sadly, I have to admit that Humboldt is probably leaning Sask Party based on the Non-Saskatoon,Non-Regina Poll numbers. That being said, if any candidate can buck that trend it is Brenda Curtis in Humboldt. She has been working like crazy and the results were very, very close last time, and the Sask Party incumbent is pretty weak.
I also haven't talked to anyone in the local campaign who can give me the inside scoop, so this is entirely based on polling analysis. If the undecided break to her favor, Brenda wins Humboldt. I just think that the poll numbers mean this is unlikely.
I have been helping Brenda with her campaign and it will be very close. The Sask Party has now written a letter to the editor to say that the will cover any overages the hospital may have due to the delay. This may swing votes in Humboldt as the hospital is a big issue. Brenda is still fighting hard and I think because of the hospital announcement it means the Sask Party is a little scared of what's going on. I think it is very close here still. I can't wait until Wednesday to see how it all palys out.
I think you should consider Regina South as too close to call and in the same category as Greystone, Eastview, Yorkton, Meadow Lake, and Saskatchewan Rivers. Meewasin should also be in that category. All of these ridings will be very close on election night and are the ones to watch.
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