Liberal Leadership Analysis - Province by Province

I will be back tomorrow with an analysis of my estimates along with the other sites that I gathered data from and I will crown someone the best predictor so stay tuned.

For now, let's look at the data from each province:

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Newfoundland
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Winner: Rae (30%)

Good Showing: Dryden (14%), Iggy (30%)

Disappointed: Kennedy (10%), Dion (6%), Brison (0%)

Well, if you listen to Kinsella then "there's a reason why Bob Rae is strongest in Newfoundland and BC. It's because they are the furthest points from Ontario. " Funny, but I doubt it is the truth. I have to think that is is somewhat due to Allan MacEachen's support. You would have thought that some of Brison's "Atlantic Appeal" would have bled over, but nope.


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Nova Scotia
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Winner: Brison (40%)

Good Showing: Iggy (37%)

This was Brison's only source of support across the country and even then, Iggy came within 5 delegates of beating him. The rumours were that Brison had this one all sewn up and that he would get more than 3% of the total number of delegates from his strength in Nova Scotia alone according to the Halifax newspaper but that was not the case. Iggy must have a pretty good team in place here to compete with Brison.


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New Brunswick
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Winner: Iggy (34%)

Good Showing: Rae (14%)

Disappointed: Dion (14%), Brison (9.5%)

Rae gets a "good showing" while Dion gets a "disappointed" for the same percentage because of the Francaphonie factor. Dion should have done better in NB. And again, Brison can't get traction outside his home province.


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PEI
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Winner: Rae (41%)

Good Showing: Kennedy (21%) Iggy (20%)

Disappointed: Brison (1.5%)

First province with Kennedy support (to bad it's the smallest one) and again, Brison with no cross-border support. You will note that Iggy has shown well in all the Atlantic provinces - the only candidate to do so.


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Quebec
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Winner: Iggy (38%)

Good Showing: Dion (29%) Rae (23%)

Disappointed: Kennedy (1.7%), Dryden (1.3%)

This should be more of a story than it seems to be. Iggy won Quebec. Everyone seems to be focusing on Kennedy's abysmal showing. Kinsella calls it "Kennedy’s astonishing crash-and-burn in Quebec" and Chantal Hebert says, "Gerard Kennedy's dismal absence from the Quebec radar"
means that he is out of it.

But no one points out that Iggy won the damn province - placing almost 10 points ahead of Dion. For a Liberal Party that want's to rebuild in QB, this is the sign they have been waiting for. This stat alone will result in a TON of ex officio support from MP's and assorted hangers on at convention and they have like 800 some votes so it is an important block of votes. I don't see how Iggy doesn't win at this opint base on this fact alone.


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Ontario
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Winner: Iggy (28%)

Good Showing: Kennedy (27%)

DiDisappointedRae (17%), Dion (10%)

Kennedy is a former cabinet minister who had a lot of provincial and federal MP's and MLA's elected and he had a provincial leadership organization at one point. In other words, on the ground, in the trenchs, he should have been impossible to beat.

Iggy beat him. Not by much, but be enough. This means that Iggy placed first in both Ontario and Quebec. He will get 600-700 of the 800 ex officios for this. You might as well shut 'er down, cause Iggy has won.

Rae proves that he cannot win Ontario (amongst Liberals) where he should have the best name recognition and ground support. This is a damming indictment of Rae and will cause people to look twice at supporting him on future ballots.


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Manitoba
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Winner: Rae (31.5%)

Good Showing: Iggy (23.5%) Dryden (14.8%)

Disappointed: Kennedy (14%), Dion (6%)

This was Kennedy's home province (he is from The Pas) and he placed 4th! Behind Dryden for crying out loud! This and Ontario, and Quebec spells the death knell for Kennedy.

Rae had a good on-the-ground team (I'm told) with some good endorsements to win, and Iggy stayed int he game. Dryden's wierd numbers make this less of a predictor then it otherwise would be - any thoughts on that one?


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Saskatchewan
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Winner: Iggy (33%)

Good Showing: Rae (21%) Kennedy (18%)

DisappointedDion (15%)

Dion get a disappointed because of the the David Orchard Factor. If he can't deliver here then what the hell good is he? This is my home province and everyone that I talked to said that Rae had it sewn up. Iggy for the win was a surprise to me. The guy has strength everywhere.


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Alberta
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Winner: Kennedy(28%)

Good Showing: Iggy (25%) Dion (18%)

Disappointed:Rae (9%)

Rae got spanked by Dion in Alberta? Kennedy actually won a province? The only non-surprising thing here is that Iggy is right in the mix of things. The guy has support everywhere.


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BC
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Winner: Rae (29%)

Good Showing: Kennedy (20%) Dion (18%)

Disappointed: Iggy (17%)

Here is the capper. Iggy should be disappointed with a fourth place finish where he gets over 15% of the delegates. This is a BAD showing for him? It's better than some of the above "good showings" for the others. Face it - Iggy wins.

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So after all of that exhaustive analysis, what have I come up with? Iggy winning? Big deal. That's what everyone is saying:

As Cerberus points out:

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"He is the only candidate to show solid even leading strength in every province and territory."

and

"For those who repeat and repeat the cant that "Ignatieff has no room to grow", two things: (1) with such a huge lead, he doesn't have to have the "most" room to grow"

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Kinsella says:

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"Dion and Ignatieff will be the names on the final ballot. Going way, way out on a limb? Iggy has got a big, big lead."

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Chantal Hebert pipes in:

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"Ignatieff will need to get a second wind to prevail but he has the advantage both quantitatively and qualitatively going into the two-month stretch to the Montreal convention."

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Jeffry Simpson says the race is Iggy's to lose:

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"Better still for Mr. Ignatieff, the weekend score underestimates his strength. Many ex officio delegates -- including MPs and former candidates, senators and party officials who will automatically be given voting privileges at the convention -- disproportionately favour him.His first-ballot delegate score is likely closer to 35 per cent than 30."

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John Ivison of the National Post agrees:

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"The other obvious storyline is that Ignatieff has out-performed expectations, securing about 30% of delegates. When ex-officio members (current and former MPs and senators) and Aboriginal delegates are added, it is likely that this number will rise above 35%,"

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Don Martin trys to throw some cold water on it:

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"While Ignatieff can emerge confident after pulling ahead of the pack yesterday with an 11-point lead in elected delegates at this writing, there's no room for cockiness with potent Anyone-But-Iggy forces conspiring against him."

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But even he admits that the question is "who will end up becoming Ignatieff's kingmaker"

So that's all folks. Unless something changes, My predication is Iggy is the next leader of the Liberal Party

Liberal Leadership Final Delgate Predictions

I am leaving these up all weekend (nice way to get out of bloging for the weekend)

25% Ignatieff
19% Rae
17% Kennedy
15% Dion
9% Dryden
6% Brison
5% Volpe
2% Hall-Findlay


that is all

Possible Arson in CPC nomination battle?

I think this is getting just a little out of hand, don't you?

The Spending Cuts' Impact on Saskatchewan

Yesterday I posted about the CPC spending cuts. Today I would like to follow up on the issue - particularly the Saskatchewan perpective.

As Greg over at Polical Staples has pointed out:

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"An academic study of the 2004 election, for example, underlines that fewer aboriginals are voting, and Canadians in lower income brackets and young people generally turn up less often at the ballot box."

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His reasoning being that since young people and aboriginals don't vote, this will not impact the CPC a whole lot. This has particualr note in Saskatchewan where the First Nations population is higher than elsewhere. what bothers me the most is one of the programs that they cut for First Nations people was one o the better ones.

The CPC cut off funding for an anti-smoking campaign aimed at First Nations and Inuit people, an effort that Conservative ministers suggested was wasteful and ineffective.

I agree with one of the NDP MP's who said:

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Dennis Bevington, the NDP member for Western Arctic, said the $10.8-million cut means "more aboriginal Canadians will get sick and die due to smoking." The were "no consultations, no debate," he said, calling the decision "another sign of just how arrogant and controlling this prime minister is at a time when this country has record surpluses."

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And the cuts also target people (who Greg points out, don't vote) that need the help the most. People who are helped by say, groups who teach them to read:

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"This is a black day for us," said Wendy Desbrisay, executive director of the Canadian Literacy Movement. "We did not see this coming."

She accused the federal government of "abdicating" its leadership role in encouraging a pan-Canadian literacy strategy.

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And further more, the impact on the museums in Saskchewan from the funding cuts is something the 12 MP's from Saskatchewan are going to here more about.

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In Harper World - a Big Surplus means Cut, Cut, Cut!

The CPC have found themselves with a $13.2 billion surplus. So what do they do?

Why, cut programs of course.

Some of the programs may be good cuts, but how do you justify cutting the following:

- $78.8 million: Elimination of program that gave GST rebates to tourists

Isn't that a tax hike? The CPC is once again raising taxes.

- $13.9 million: Cancellation of National Defence High-Frequency Surface Wave Radar Project

I thought the CPC was all about military spending?

- $4.6 million: Cuts to museum assistance

Shame on you. Philistines.

- $4.6 million: Elimination of the RCMP drug-impaired-driving program's training budget

Tough on Law-and-Order my ass.

Liberal Leadership Delegate Predictions - Update

I posted my average calculations here earlier. This is my update with the new Star Poll and the other poll I reported on as well as Fry being taken out (not that that affected the numbers all that much)

It is a little hard to make out but I have Iggy in 1st with 25% and then Rae in 2nd with 17-18%.

We will see how acurate that is

Volpe and Crew - The Liberals worst Nightmare

As you may or may not have heard Joe Volpe is under attack for signing up dead members in Quebec.

The Star has the story and this great pic:

My question is, how many scandals and charges of corruption have to be leveled against a Candidate before the Liberals make him drop out of the race?

Is there really no such thing as too much corruption in the Liberal Party of Canada?

Update: It turns out that one of the experts on Liberal Party Corruption has spoken out and his answer to my question is no, no there is no such thing as too much corruption.

Harper Screws Saskatchewan and BREAKS HIS COMMITTMENT

I called it here , the Harper Conservatives in this province are going to screw us royally.

In the election the 12 Conservative MP's and Harper made promises to the people of Saskatchewan

Now it turns out that the new plan is as follows:

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"The plan would mean more money for every province -- with the exception of Newfoundland and Labrador. Quebec would be the biggest winner, likely receiving an extra $1.1-billion a year. Ontario would also benefit, gaining about $900-million through increased transfers for social programs."

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hmmm. Looks like Eastern Canada gets a pretty good deal there eh? I'm sure Saskatchewan does just as well. Right?

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"Saskatchewan would receive an extra $156-million, less than the nearly $1-billion it would get if resource revenues were excluded from the calculation."

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Woops. I guess not.

Some more from the article:

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Resource-rich provinces such as Newfoundland and Labrador, Saskatchewan and Alberta had hotly opposed including their oil and gas wealth in the calculation. They insisted non-renewable resources be excluded -- a position also taken by the Conservatives in their 2006 election platform.

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That's right, Harper made a commitment in the platform, something he emphasised last time he was here in the province, here is what Harper said about equalization:

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"I'm certainly aware we made some commitments in that regard. As you know, this government prides itself on fulfilling these commitments."

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Which was quickly pounced on by reporters here in the province:

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And then there was my personal favourite: "I've told the province that during these discussions that I'm going to try and not say things that will prejudice the final outcome because we are listening to a range of provincial concerns on these issues."
You don't want to prejudice the final outcome? Of course, you do, sir. You're the prime minister of Canada. It's actually your job to prejudice the outcome, because you're the one that made the blunt, unequivocal promise in a Jan. 12 letter to "exclude non-renewable resources" from the equalization formula and move to a 10-province standard.

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The media have also been critical of the lapdogs, I mean, MP's of Prime Minister Steve. (PMS)

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"Saskatchewan Conservative MPs and candidates were crystal clear during the 2006 election campaign when they promised that a Conservative government would exempt Saskatchewan's non-renewable resources from equalization....Seeing that, one can't help but wonder if the federal Conservatives only recently decided to flip-flop on their promise to Saskatchewan? Is that because they believe we can be taken for granted? Or did the Conservatives always plan to break their promise to a province with just 14 seats so they could keep their promise to a province with 75 seats?"

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And now, with this latest outrage, the media is quick to point out the obvious.

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Saskatchewan is about to become the country's biggest equalization loser.In its most simplified form, the report states the Harper government is considering implementing an equalization plan that penalizes Saskatchewan more than any other province.

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When Prime Minister Harper goes on and on about how he and his government keep their commitments, call them on the bullshit. They are breaking a commitment they made so that they can screw the 14 seats in Saskatchewan to pick up seats in Ontario/Quebec.

So much for the "West Want's In" eh, PMS?

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News Flash - Bob Rae supported the NDP

Apparently the Liberals weren't paying much attention to the actual histories of the different leadership candidates. Hence, this story "Rae gave money to NDP Candidates" is shocking.

Shocking, I say.

Who would of thought that an NDP premier would make donations to the NDP - other than Ujjal Dosanjh of course.

Some Liberal reactions from the article:

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Liberal MP Jim Karygiannis also said he has problems with the donations. "Playing the field until you sort of decide where you're going and say, 'There's an opportunity here for me,' I think doesn't sound right by a lot of people," he said.

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Yeah, no one likes a group of opportunists who won't take a hard stance on things and vacillate back and forth between right and left, and often appear left-wing but then reveal that they are not.

Ooops! Liberal ears are burning.

"We lied in the morning and in the evening"

So this is what a little TOO much truth in advertising gets you:

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More than 10,000 protesters took part in a riot in Budapest, Hungary, showering police with stones and bottles in protest against the government.

The violence was sparked by Hungarian prime Ferenc Gyurcsany's admission that he had lied "day and night" to win this year's elections. The leaked tape showsm Gyurcsany, who campaigned on a promise of tax cuts, says: "We lied in the morning and in the evening." Gyurcsany also admits that his government led by Socialist Party has achieved nothing since coming to power.

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Read his speech here and his justification here

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The turmoil exploded Sunday, when state radio aired an audiotape of Gyurcsany telling members of his ruling Socialist Party that his government had lied about the state of the country's economy throughout its two years in office.

"We lied throughout the past one and a half or two years," he said. "We lied in the morning, we lied in the evening and also at night."

The remarks came in a conversation taped during a party retreat in May. President Laszlo Solyom said the prime minister's admission has caused a "moral crisis" in Hungary.

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Liberal Leadership Delegate Predictions

Here are the predictions of people who actually know what they are talking about, the last column is my average of the numbers that other people have generated.

Note: for some reason there is a big gap here, you must scroll down - stupid blogger templates and formatting

	democraticSPACE	Cherniak	Cerberus	CalgaryGrit	delegate.count	Average
IGNATIEFF	27.5%	25-30%	24%	26.2%	33.59%	27.7%
KENNEDY	15.8%	20-25%	18%	18.5%	17.07%	19.1%
RAE	14.9%	10-20%	19%	15.9%	14.24%	15.7%
DION	13.4%	12-15%	14%	13.9%	18.91%	14.5%
BRISON	8.2%	8-10%	7%	6.5%	4.66%	7.4%
VOLPE	8.1%	4-8%	6%	10.2%	2.13%	6.4%
DRYDEN	7.7%	6-10%	8%	6.4%	7.64%	7.6%
HALL-FINDLAY	3.6%	2-4%	3%	2.0%	1.51%	2.7%
FRY	0.8%	0%	0.5%	0.5%	0.25%	0.3%

So it looks like conventional wisdom has Fry and Hall-Findlay being also-rans (Which I think everyone can agree with)

But what happens next?

Dryden, Volpe and Brison are the next tier - where do they go when they drop off?

I can't see Brison going to Iggy, not after the bad blood in those camps. But Rae and Kennedy are opposed to Brison's war support. I see him going to Dion

I also see Quebec hockey star Dryden going to Dion.

Volpe? Who knows. But if I'm right, then he get's his dream - to be the kingmaker

But if I am right and those two go to Dion, then he has the momentum to be in second place and the clear "anyone but Iggy" person.

Ray/Kennedy really need to stop this if they want to win. Bet your bottom dollar after the Delegate selection process that those camps are reaching out fast and hard.

Still anybody's guess at this point.

Saskatchewan Cabinet Shuffle

Lorne Calvert, the Premier of Saskatchewan, has made a small change in his cabinet.

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On Friday, Regina Elphinstone-Centre MLA Warren McCall was sworn in as minister of corrections and public safety.

He replaces Regina Dewdney's Kevin Yates, who has been in cabinet since February.

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This had led to all sorts of speculation by the media, the bloggers and others that this is all about Leadership and Yates and Calvert not being able to get along.

I know that we all all loathe to take politicians at face value, but until we hear otherwise, why can
no one assume that Mr. Yates is actually stepping down for personall reasons?

I have no inside information at all, but why couldn't there be an illness in the family or something that would force him to resign?

Liberal Leadership Numbers - New Poll

Hat tip to Paul Wells for this:

Here are the numbers that people in my neck of the woods need to care about. My anaysis will follow later but for now, I report, You decide :-)

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General Voters

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Liberal Voters

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General Voters

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Western Canada

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English Speaking

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Roadkill Wackyness Part 4

So I made my post on the Dawson College issue and was prepared to leave it at that. But then I couldn't help myself (It's kind of a disease) and I wandered over to SDA to check out their "measured" reaction.

I wasn't disappointed.

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" ctv.ca does not mention this fact: Gamil Rodrigue Gharbi, aka Marc Lepine. Gamil R. Gharbi changed his name to Marc Lepine at age 13."

"Craig Oliver should be on any minute to blame PM Harper's Afghanistan offensive."

"Just imagine if the victims could shoot back."

"There is a place for righteous outrage and anger, a demand for punishment. Heartening as it may be that Canadian Police went in as fast as they did, imagine what the outcome might have been had the populace not been disarmed. This creep opened fire outside. Any armed citizen could have brought him down right there."

"Were the onlookers, those that did not run away, a bunch of neutered Laytonesque wanna be peace-loving negotiators?"

"There have been too many incidents of this sort, not because of a "gun culture" but because of a citizenry dependent on the State for its safety. The State can't do it. The people must."

"Islamic terrorism springs to mind, of course, but I guess we must wait."

"I have known 3 "Gill" families in my travels (all unrelated to each other). They were all from India and (maybe coincidentally) all of the Sikh religion. If this is the case here, it should put an end to the idea of political motivation. Although, I guess that should already be clear by now. "

"Wouldn't you rather die doing something more courageous than voting NDP...?"

"Piss away a few more billions on more gun "control".....but try some "retard" control first"

" I respect Fox as the best source for news but this is getting too much."

"Why isn't talibanjack there to talk and negotiate with the shooters. "

"Next up, Jack Layton blames the US inspired Dewey Decimal System for illiteracy amongst Canada's Northern youth."

"FOX I would hope would at least wait until the shooting stopped before making a comment."

"What's so funny about fighting off an armed guy with a knapsack, esp. if you and your friends outnumber the nut? Unless you're a no-balls coward of course."

"While it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees, that's the sort of thing you have to learn over time. A teenager generally doesn't know that yet, and their first instinct is to save themselves - the basic survival instinct."

"People that tell themselves that "it's not my problem" will run. Those that feel no duty to help thair fellow man will run. Those that have been taught to irrationally fear guns will run. And maybe many good prople would run, maybe I would run; but if I did, I would be ashamed of my (in)actions foreve"

"this is a glowing reminder to the public that a gun in the right hands saves lives"

"The inevitable political spin, while inevitable, has started already. Anyone trying to use this tradegy for political gain should be seriously chastised.
Layton is an idiot. I'll predict that the gun used (if it's only one) was either legally purchased, or stolen within this country and it was an SKS." [Empasis mine]

"Thank God the Conservatives are at the helm right now."

"How much taxpayers money was stolen under the watchfull eyes of the Lieberals?
$40 million?"

"Enough weeping and "grief counselors"."

"I agree with benning. Enough, already, with the grief counsellors. Canadians have got to wake up, smell the coffee, get off their butts, and KICK ASS when it comes to this stuff."

"turmoil in Algeria is encouraging the spread of an international form of Islamism that threatens to polarize rather than unite a divided society"

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And my favorite:

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"The MSM needs to calm down and concentrate on getting accurate information at this point"

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It never fails, see my previous posts on this topic. The SDA comments forum always comes up with the best irony in the world.

See, the MSM should wait before commenting. Unlike the commenters, THEY should feel free to specualte about muslim terrorists, blame and attack the NDP and Layton, crtizise the students for not fighting back and claim that if EVERYONE had guns none of this would have happened.

Sick. Just Sick.

On Montreal and Time

I spent a good part of yesterday watching and reading about the shootings at Dawson College in Montreal

1) My deepest sympathies go out to the families and friends of all of those involved in the incident.

2) We should all be grateful that the situation wasn't even worse than it was

3) I agree with Mike over at rational reasons, give this one some time before politicizing it

that is all

Calvert Ponders Ad Campaign for Equalization pt 2

Part 1

While we are at it, here is an interesting quote from the article from my first post.

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Elhard [the Conservative Party Critic] is now urging Calvert to slow down.

"If we can be a little more patient, take the prime minister at his word," he said. "If he says there's going to be change, we'll wait to see that happen."

People in Saskatchewan don't need to be convinced that a new equalization deal is a good idea, Elhard said.

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That's very interesting. Here is what Elhard's Boss- Brad Wall, the Conservative Leader of the Opposition had to say on this file a few months ago:

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Well, Mr. Speaker, I’m not sure if you’ve heard, but the federal Liberal government
seems to be having their share of political challenges at the moment, and the likelihood of a spring election is increasing across the country. What better time to press for a better equalization deal for our province than right now?

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First the Conservative Saskatchewan Party is all for pushing for equalization and now they are against pushing for it?

What happened?

Oh, right, the Conservatives formed the government federaly.

Brad Wall is selling out the people of Saskatchewan to play lapdog for his master PMS

Calvert Ponders Ad Campaign for Equalization

The CBC reports that Premier Calvert may take on PMS and the Conservative MP's from Saskatchewan on the whole equalization deal.

Might I suggest an ad?

You Have Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself

When FDR made his famous speech "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself" that wasn't an endorsement of fear.

Bush and Harper seemed to have missed that point.

The tactic of the Republican Party is to use fear as a tool

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The Republican Party will spend the next 30 days trying to make you afraid. It is the Republican midterm election strategy. For the rest of September, until the moment Republican leaders gavel the Congress into adjournment, Republican speakers will rise and implore the American people to be afraid. Republicans will call it security, and every time they do, just remember they are speaking in code. Republicans really mean insecurity.

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And we are starting to see that here. With PMS's little September 11th chat with the nation.

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Prime Minister Stephen Harper and U.S. President George W. Bush took to the airwaves on the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks to remember the tragedy and in an attempt to bolster support for two unpopular battlefronts - Afghanistan and Iraq.

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It was better than PMPM calling on us to give him one more chance.

But only slightly.

Saskatoon Police and Handcuff Bondange

With a title like this I should get some traffic that I might not want :-)

So up in Saskatoon a few days ago some police officers were showing some young students how handcuffs work. The following is a clip from that exchange:


powered by ODEO

One of the children is obviously quite familier with handcuffs:

"My dad practices on my mom all the time!"

to which the police officer responds:

"Oh! How does your mom feel about that?"

Ah, the life of a police officer in Saskatoon.

Are Liberals going to sell this in Saskatchewan?

Over on Calgary Grit he made an interesting post about the Liberal leadership race. I particularly liked the following passage (Hat-tip: Lobster Thermidor):

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"this led to some funny moments when candidates would say things like "we need to claw back agricultural subsidies by 0.2% over the next decade" and their supporters would burst into chants and applause. "

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I would LOVE to know which Candidate said that.

I would LOVE for that Candidate to sell that in Saskatchewan.

Calgary Grit?

Lobster Thermador?

Anyone?