Liberal Leadership Delegate Predictions

Here are the predictions of people who actually know what they are talking about, the last column is my average of the numbers that other people have generated.

Note: for some reason there is a big gap here, you must scroll down - stupid blogger templates and formatting

	democraticSPACE	Cherniak	Cerberus	CalgaryGrit	delegate.count	Average
IGNATIEFF	27.5%	25-30%	24%	26.2%	33.59%	27.7%
KENNEDY	15.8%	20-25%	18%	18.5%	17.07%	19.1%
RAE	14.9%	10-20%	19%	15.9%	14.24%	15.7%
DION	13.4%	12-15%	14%	13.9%	18.91%	14.5%
BRISON	8.2%	8-10%	7%	6.5%	4.66%	7.4%
VOLPE	8.1%	4-8%	6%	10.2%	2.13%	6.4%
DRYDEN	7.7%	6-10%	8%	6.4%	7.64%	7.6%
HALL-FINDLAY	3.6%	2-4%	3%	2.0%	1.51%	2.7%
FRY	0.8%	0%	0.5%	0.5%	0.25%	0.3%

So it looks like conventional wisdom has Fry and Hall-Findlay being also-rans (Which I think everyone can agree with)

But what happens next?

Dryden, Volpe and Brison are the next tier - where do they go when they drop off?

I can't see Brison going to Iggy, not after the bad blood in those camps. But Rae and Kennedy are opposed to Brison's war support. I see him going to Dion

I also see Quebec hockey star Dryden going to Dion.

Volpe? Who knows. But if I'm right, then he get's his dream - to be the kingmaker

But if I am right and those two go to Dion, then he has the momentum to be in second place and the clear "anyone but Iggy" person.

Ray/Kennedy really need to stop this if they want to win. Bet your bottom dollar after the Delegate selection process that those camps are reaching out fast and hard.

Still anybody's guess at this point.