"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!"
-Homer J. Simpson

Friday, December 01, 2006

Final Liberal Leadership Predictions

This is largely speculation and the application of a bit of mathematical analysis based on previous convention track records

1st ballot
-----------------
33.3% - Ignatieff
20.8% - Rae
17.2% - Dion
16.4% - Kennedy
04.5% - Dryden
03.4% - Volpe
03.2% - Brison
01.2% - Findlay


2nd Ballot
---------------
36.3% - Ignatieff
23.6% - Rae
18.3% - Dion
17.3% - Kennedy
04.0% - Dryden


3rd Ballot
-----------------
37.1% - Ignatieff
24.7% - Rae
19.8% - Kennedy
18.4% - Dion


4th Ballot
----------------
43.9% - Ignatieff
29.2% - Rae
26.9% - Kennedy


5th Ballot
----------------
55.7% - Ignatieff
44.3% - Rae


Final Result - Iggy victory on the 5th ballot

3 comments:

Saskboy said...

Martha in 7.

Charlie Barnard said...

Iggy...victory...right...

leftdog said...

Very well thought out prediction. I offer one variation -
3rd ballot:
-----------
Ignatieff
Rae
Dion
Kennedy

4th ballot
----------
Ignatieff
Rae
Dion

I then agree with your 5th ballot call.