Liberal Leadership Third Ballot Results

My new third ballot prediction:

New 3rd ballot Prediction
--------------------------
37.2% - Ignatieff
35.0% - Dion
27.8% - Rae


Actual Results
-----------------------
37.0% - Dion
34.5% - Iggnatief
28.5% - Rae

I got the Rae part right but the other two have basically switched.

Rae drops off and I think he will go to Iggnatief. As long as 55% of Rae's people go to Iggy then Iggy can still win