Saskatchewan Election Prediction Update
In my last pre-election post on election predictions I made the following point:
The seats to watch are the following ones:
Wascana Plains in Regina.
Humboldt
Yorkton
Greystone in Saskatoon
Meewasin in Saskatoon
Northwest in Saskatoon
Meadow Lake
Saskatchewan Rivers
Lloydminster
I am starting to hear some rumblings from people on both sides about a couple of these seats.
In Yorkton the NDP is running a strong campaign with a lot of support for the local councilor in the city of Yorkton proper, but not so much support from the rural area. This does not bode well for the NDP in this seat as they need to at least win a couple of polls in the rural to make up for the new suburban south-east end of the city of Yorkton proper, which the Sask Party has wrapped up. I am not ready to concede this seat yet, but it is on life-support.
The flip side of that is Sask Rivers. I hear from a friend of mine in the Sask Party that they are not getting the traction they need in the seat and I also hear that the NDP campaign office opening had 800 people out. If that's true, then this seat will be an NDP hold. (Perhaps defying conventional wisdom)
I have another friend who is involved in the Greystone campaign and says that the NDP are holding all of thier support from last time in the seat. If she is not lieing to me (and I have no reason to suspect she is being untruthful) the NDP will hold Greystone.
The Liberals are cratering in Saskatoon and will be lucky to get 10% of the vote in the entire city. So unless that 10% all live in Meewassin that means that Karwacki is done for (again). If this 10% stat hold true, the NDP will actually increase their percentage win in this seat (which may be the only seat in the province where this is the case)
And, sadly, I am afraid that it is time to concede Regina Wascana Plains. It does look like this will be the most likely pickup for the Sask Party.
So here was my summary going into this post:
Province-Wide Summary:
NDP: 24
SP: 25
Too Close: 9
I am giving Regina WP to the Sask Party and I am giving Greystone and Meewasin to the NDP. Yorkton and Sask Rivers remain too close to call but leaning in particular directions and I have no new information on the rest.
New Province-Wide Summary:
NDP: 26
SP: 26
Too Close: 6
I have said one thing all along, that this election was going to be closer than a lot of people thought. These numbers are looking like that will be true.
10 comments:
GPM.
I think I probably agree with you on Regina Wascana Plains and Meewasin. However, I'd keep Greystone in the too close to call category.
Of the seats you outline, I'd say that the Sask Party will hold / pick up the following:
- Lloydminster
- Humboldt
- Saskatoon Northwest
- Regina Wascana Plains
The NDP will hold the following:
- Saskatoon Meewasin
Too close to call:
- Saskatchewan Rivers
- Yorkton
- Saskatoon Greystone
- Meadow Lake
As for other ones that should be watched and I would say are too close to call:
- Regina South
- Saskatoon Sutherland
- Saskatoon Eastview
- Prince Albert Carleton
NDP barely holding / winning slightly (these seats could change if there is major fall-out in the last two weeks for the NDP but otherwise should be safe):
- Regina Dewdney
- Moose Jaw North
- Prince Albert Northcote
- Regina Qu'Appelle Valley
- The Battlefords
All in all, it comes to:
Sask Party - 28
NDP - 22
Liberals - 0
Too Close to Call - 8
An underestimation of SK Liberal support will end up being a grave miscalculation of the NDP. How's that for a prediction? We'll know on the 7th. I can't wait.
I give a tip of the hat to both GPM & Saskatory ... both have solid rationale for their predictions ... and I think this is some of the best seat by seat analysis I've yet seen inthis election. We should all save this post and return after Nov 7th ...
i have enjoyed your predictions and i have also thought this election would be close. Nov 7th will be interesting.
I would comment on the one i am familiar with which is yorkton. the ndp candidate is strong, well respected and gaining traction everyday. it has the local sp candidate on the defensive. yorkton is home to securetek and this is an issue in this riding. i think the ndp will hold this by a 3-5% margin.
i too would like to revisit this post after Nov 7.
cheers.
Sasaktory:
- Regina South
- Saskatoon Sutherland
- Saskatoon Eastview
- Prince Albert Carleton
I will agree that if the bottom falls out for the NDP these are likely drops, but I am not worried about Eastview. The senior's drug plan affects this riding more than an and they have a long history of voting NDP on health issues.
I know that everyone but me puts Regina south in the toss-up camp but I will stick with my prediction, the NDP has a 2000 vote lead and that will drop yes, but as long as 1 in 10 voters gives up the NDP for the Libs and not the SP, the NDP can withstand a 1100 vote drop (which is a HUGE swing) in a seat with the highest concentration of civil servants in the Province.
I don't have any inside information on Sutherland so I can't refute your charges except to repeat that both Saskatoon South and Eastview have the only real Liberal presence in Saskatoon outside of Meewasin and that the NDP will hold both on the split. But I'll admit that some of that might be wishful thinking.
As for Greystone, all I know is that the NDP camp up there thinks that they are going to win it. That is what I am basing my call on, if they are wrong, then obviously so am I.
Andrew Mason (Greystone) is well known in the majority of the riding from his two runs Federally. If he can bring out the same support provincially (not always a given in either direction) then he should be in good shape.
In Meewasin its interesting to hear the different takes by the Libs and SP (published in the Star Phoenix today). Karwacki says a vote for the SP is a vote for the NDP and Parent says a vote for the Liberals is a vote for the NDP.
In the end I think the very strong City Park/North Park NDP support (as well as Caswell Hill, that went overwhelmingly NDP in the last provincial and Fed elections) will carry Quennell through the rough spot represented by Lawson Heights (where the SP seems to be doing well).
I hope to get out over the next couple of weeks with the Northwest NDP candidate and will have a better idea of that riding then. From first impressions (flyer drops ) it looks like the SP are well organized in some areas of the NW riding.
I think you are dreaming and now it is time to wake up.
1. The NDP have been completely eradicated from the face of the map in the last 2 federal elections.
2. The Premier cancelled his summer tour because people were screaming mad at him where ever he went.
3. Lorne Clavert was booed off the stage at the Junos.
4. Nodice polls show the NDP running at 20 points behind the SP for the last 2 years.
5. Everything has gone against the NDP this election, if it weren't for bad luck, the NDP wouldn't have any luck at all.
6. I have heard, I haven't seen it myself, that Janice McKinnon is running an ad, at her own expense, saying that Lorne Clavert's drug plan is unsustainable and that people should vote against it on November 7th.
My prediction:
SP 40
Liberal 3
NDP 15
Trent,
You're absolutely right. The NDP hacks are just trying to appear confident in order to prevent the few supporters they have left from realizing the trouble there in so that their support doesn't crumble all together. Your prediction could definitely happen. I guess there are two more weeks left to see how many more times the NDP shoots itself in the foot, or worse places for that matter.
Sure Trent. The NDP are going to lost 15 seats. Who is the partisan hack again?
Actually, the NDP did quite well in the urban portions of the Saskatoon and most Regina ridings in 2004 and even better in 2004, usually placing second but losing due to the large rural voter turnout/conservative vote.
15 seats for the NDP? now that is dreaming in technocolour...
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