Saskatchewan Election Predictions - Part 4

This is the fourth in a series of 5 posts examining each of the 58 constituencies in the province of Saskatchewan and my analysis on the outcome of the next provincial election.

Part 1 - The South
Summary:

Sask Party: 9
NDP: 2

Part 2 - Regina
Summary:

NDP: 10
SP: 0
Too Close: 1

Part 3 - Central Saskatchewan
Summary:

NDP: 0
SP: 9
Too Close: 2

Part 4 - Saskatoon

Saskatoon is always a key battleground for the NDP and this election will not be any different.

1. Saskatoon NorthWest

Margin of Victory for SP (2003): 3%

The NDP just lost this seat in 2003 with the lame (former Liberal) candidate Jim Melenchuck. Also, the Liberals got over 20% of the vote here and could act as a spoiler for any candidate. The SP are the incumbents and on the upswing, but the candidate that they have nominated is controversial to say the least (Calling the Charter of Rights and Freedoms a "Piece of Garbage" and making what could be considered off-color comments about Jewish people) . There are just to many factors up in the air in a seat that has been won by all three parties in the last three elections.

Prediction: To Close to Call.


2. Meewasin

Margin of Victory for the NDP: 7%

This is another interesting on. This would normally be a solid NDP seat but this is the seat where the Liberal leader ran last time (he has run in other places since) and I assume that he will be running here again. Of course, he was beaten by a person that was nominated 2 weeks before the election that no one had ever heard of - Frank Quennell. Quennell has gone on to be a high-profile cabinet minister for the NDP and has been working hard in his local constituency to keep the people there on side. I personally think that Quennell will hold the seat but I grant that this is the only seat in the province that the Liberals stand a chance in, so I would assume they will throw all of their resources into it (Course, being Liberals in Saskatchewan they will probably throw all their resources into say, Rosemont where they don't have a snowball's chance in hell). Ignoring typical Liberal bumbling, I am going to have to put this one down as too close to call.

Prediction: Too Close to Call


3. Silver Springs

Margin of Victory for SP: 4%

This one will remain close but in the SP camp.

Prediction: Weakly Sask Party.


4. Fairview

Margin of Victory for NDP: 30%

This will be an NDP hold.


5. Massey Place

Margin of Victory for NDP: 40%

This will be an NDP hold.


6. Sutherland

Margin of Victory for NDP: 20%

There has been some talk that the SP will pick up this seat. I doubt it. Both the Liberals and the SP get over 20% in this seat but the NDP get almost a clear majority (46%) . The NDP will probably drop a bit in this seat but the problem for both opposition parties is that the vote will split between them, allowing the NDP to run up the middle.

Prediction: NDP Hold.


7. Saskatoon Center

Margin of Victory for NDP: 40%

This will be an NDP hold.


8. Riversdale

Margin of Victory for NDP: 40%

This will be an NDP hold.


9. Nutana

Margin of Victory for NDP: 35%

This will be an NDP hold.


10. Eastview

Margin of Victory for NDP: 25%

Same deal as Sutherland - Both the Liberals and the SP get over 20% in this seat but the NDP get almost a clear majority (44%) . Again, the NDP will probably drop a bit in this seat but the problem for both opposition parties is that the vote will split between them, allowing the NDP to run up the middle.

11. Greystone

Margin of Victory for NDP: 18%

This is going to be a key seat. The NDP are running a brand new candidate (albeit one who won all the Federal polls in the seat as a Federal candidate) and this has to be on the SP list as a target seat.

Prediction: To Close to Call.


12. Saskatoon Southeast

Margin of Victory for SP: 8%

This will be an Sask Party hold.


Part 4 Summary:

NDP: 7
SP: 2
Too Close: 3

To-Date Summary:
NDP: 19
SP: 21
Too Close: 6

Check back tomorrow for part 5 - the north. Then I will post my final predictions for the outcome and a list of seats to watch on election night.