"Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!"
-Homer J. Simpson

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Acadamy Award winner Al Gore announces his run for president

Not really,

But it has a great ring to it, doesn't it? :-)

Actually, it was a good gag:


Former Vice President Al Gore -- the central figure in the global-warming film "An Inconvenient Truth," a documentary nominee -- appeared with DiCaprio to praise organizers for implementing environmentally friendly practices in the show's production.

DiCaprio set up a gag with Gore, asking the 2000 presidential candidate if there was anything he wanted to announce.

"I guess with a billion people watching, it's as good a time as any. So my fellow Americans, I'm going to take this opportunity here and now to formally announce my intentions ...," Gore said, his voice trailing away as the orchestra cut him off.


This whole "Internet" thing might just take off

Thursday, February 22, 2007

In the US - don't run for office if you are an atheist

So according to polling report in the US:



You are much better off being a women, or a hispanic, or some other traditionally discriminated person that to be an atheist.

I wonder how much different the numbers would be in Canada?

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

A framework for progressive agreement

In Part I I asked if it was possible for the left-of-center parties in Canada to unite to form a winning coalition.

In Part II I laid out the first principles and philosophical underpinnings of such an alliance.


I believe that this core set of personal liberties coupled with the concern for the worst-off in society that can be the guiding force behind a progressive party. I know that as a New Democrat that I can support this position and I think most Liberals can as well. Extending the principle to concern for the environment (you don't know when you will be born either so you don't want a world that will be destroyed shortly) gets the Greens as well. The protection of minority rights inside a state is important to the Bloq and if they can agree to work within a united state to achieve their goals (and if they believe the state is committed to the above framework then I think this is possible).
So now the hard part begins, what are the actual guidelines that a progressive coalition could support?

1) Acceptance of the mixed economy.

So I have already lost the socialists (fine, fine) but quite frankly modern society has come to the realization that for many goods and services the open market (you will note "open" not "free") is the most efficient mechanism. Also, and this is what separates us from the Conservatives, we believe that the free market is not a one-size-fits-all solution and sometimes it is not the most efficient way to deliver a service (think health care) . The trick is to figure out when there is a market failure (whenever there is a negative externality - to use economic speak) and how to correct for that failure. (For more on this I direct you to Joseph Heath's The Efficient Society)

2) Seeking Administrative efficiency from government

Another thing that differentiates us from conservatives is our believe that government can be a solution - it is not the problem. However, often government can be cumbersome and ineffective and as such is up to progressives to fix it. Conservatives will simply point to this and use it as an excuse to scrap government programs. Progressives need to start talking about things like target controls, effective auditing, flexible decision structures and employee participation. Government can take lessons from the private sector on many things and use that information to provide solutions for problems that the private sector cannot grapple with.

3) Environmental Sustainability

This is yet another difference between us and the conservatives, we actually believe in democratic governments governing in the interests of people, both current and future generations when it comes to the environment. The environment is a classic example of a market failure (see point 1) and as such progressive forces need to martial non-market solutions
to the problem before the entire planet falls victim to the worst tragedy of the commons ever.

4) The renewal of civic society and the protection of minority rights.

Another major difference between us and the conservatives is that we believe that state and civil society should act in partnership to provide maximum freedom to citizens. It has been a tenant of liberal thought for three-hundred years that individuals should be allowed to pursue their own conception of the "good" and that government should focus on the "right." That's fine as one half of the picture but as Isaiah Berlin points out there are two types of liberty, positive liberty he associated with the idea of self-mastery, or the capacity to determine oneself, to be in control of one's destiny. The state should provide us negative liberty by allowing us to conduct our own affairs, but the state should promote civil society so that we have the capacity
to seek that self-determinism.

5) Equality as Inclusion

Both the left and the right claim that they are seeking equality, but our conceptions of that equality are very different. The right wants all people treaded exactly the same regardless of circumstance or environment. Progressives can rally behind the idea that, while we have to overcome such problems as the creation of a moral hazard, (more economics speak) the state should make social investments in people to help them live up to their full potential. Sometimes this can happen inside a universal program, such a public education, but sometimes there are groups that need special help so we can create "one-off" programs such as affirmative action, to promote the interests of a few in the pursuit of the overall best solution for all.

I hope to lay out some more thoughts on each of these topics over the next few days.

Tell me what you think? Are those the values of maximum liberty while limiting liberty for the sake of the least well off in society (see part II) that progressives can rally behind?

Monday, February 12, 2007

Can Progressives Unite the Left?

My post of a couple of days ago (that sparked one of my best comment debates ever) was the provocatively titled Wither the NDP? which put forward the following premise:


We have all heard the Benjamin Franklin quote "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results". I think that Tommy would agree.

Just like he did in 1961.

I think it is time to take a lesson from, of all people, Preston Manning. We on the left need to unite the left and create a winning coalition.

I am calling on the NDP, the Green Party, the Bloq (without the separatist angle) and the Liberals, the former PROGRESSIVE conservatives and others too think about this.

I then said in the comments that I would lay out what it was that I thought could unite us.

And so it begins.

I want to start with first principles. What philosophical rational for a political party can New Democrats, Left-Liberals, Greens, non-sepratist Bloq and others actually agree on.

I think the best chance is John Rawls Theory of Justice

Imagine for a second that you are floating in space, above the earth and you don't know who you are and where you are from.

Suddenly an angle (or demon, or whatever) appears and says, "You are an unborn child, I am about to place you with your parents, that you do not know, in a position that you do not know - but before I do that you get to decide how the earth is organized. Once you have set up the earth in the manner in which you like then I will place you with your unknown parents and you will live your life"

What kind of world would you choose?

Remember that you don't know how you would end up so, for example, you wouldn't want to create a world with slavery because you might become a slave, you wouldn't create a world where minorities are mistreated because you might be a minority.

Rawl's book goes through all the facets of a society that you would and wold not want in this world before you are placed in it.

He argues that this would create the "fairest" of all possible worlds.

Without getting too in depth into the argument (and it is a very, very good argument) here is what the bottom line is:


First: each person is to have an equal right to the most extensive scheme of equal basic liberties compatible with a similar scheme of liberties for others.

Second: Social and economic inequalities are to be arranged so that:

a) offices and positions must be open to everyone under conditions of fair
equality of opportunity

b) they are to be of the greatest benefit to the least-advantaged members of
society (the difference principle).
In other words, liberal freedoms where the only restrictions that are placed on us are for the benefit of the worst off (because we might be born as the worst off.)

I believe that this core set of personal liberties coupled with the concern for the worst-off in society that can be the guiding force behind a progressive party. I know that as a New Democrat that I can support this position and I think most Liberals can as well. Extending the principle to concern for the environment (you don't know when you will be born either so you don't want a world that will be destroyed shortly) gets the Greens as well. The protection of minority rights inside a state is important to the Bloq and if they can agree to work within a united state to achieve their goals (and if they believe the state is committed to the above framework then I think this is possible).

Obviously this is pie-in-the-sky and the real test will come in the following days when I lay out how this principle should be translated into guiding principles and issues that can form the basis of a governing plan and an election manifesto.

Sunday, February 11, 2007

Raid kills bugs dead (funny)

Saturday, February 10, 2007

Wither the NDP?

Mr. Stefaniuk over at the Sask Citizens Federation makes the argument that others have made over the years that the NDP should either merge with the liberals or "re-brand" as a true left-of-center party.

In my opinion Tommy Douglas would ask us - as new democrats - what are we doing?

The CCF was formed in 1932

31 years laster in 1961 the NDP was formed.

It is now 41 years later

Wouldn't Douglas be asking if we succeeded?

And wouldn't our answer have to be no?

We have never formed even the official opposition - never mind the government.

Douglas would say that we have failed. He would urge us to think bigger, to dream no little dream, to reach inside ourselves and make a change that we might not be comfortable with.
Just like he did in 1961.

We have all heard the Benjamin Franklin quote "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results". I think that Tommy would agree.
Just like he did in 1961.

I think it is time to take a lesson from, of all people, Preston Manning. We on the left need to unite the left and create a winning coalition.

I am calling on the NDP, the Green Party, the Bloq (without the separatist angle) and the Liberals, the former PROGRESSIVE conservatives and others too think about this.

What unites us is more important that what divides us.

The Greens will object because they are just becoming prominent and don't want to lose that.

The Bloq cannot give up separatism.

The Liberals cannot give up their arrogance and belief that they are the natural governing party.

The NDP cannot give up the notion that we are the only voice for the left and ideological purity means more than forming government.

All of us will continue to fight among ourselves while the Conservatives grow stronger.

I want a progressive party, one that speaks to my values and has a reasonable chance of forming government.

I don't have that right now. The NDP speak to my values but cannot form a government. The Liberals can form a government but cannot speak to my values.

I am prepared to compromise and work together with other like-minded people to find the common ground and move forward. Naturaly this will be viewed by the NDP as "selling out"

The cheep seats always win in our party.

read part II

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

The only time it is OK to do what President Nixon did

A stiff vice president campaigns on his administration's legacy of unprecedented prosperity. Looks terrible on TV. Bows out, following a disputed vote count. Then, two terms later, with no incumbent in the race, he re-enters the fray. Promises to change the course of a disastrous war founded on lies. And charges to victory. I'm referring, of course, to the 1968 campaign of Richard Milhous Nixon. But four decades later, history has a chance to repeat itself for Albert Arnold Gore.

read more here

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Saskatchewan Premier Calls Election Campaign

How's that for a provocative headline?

News Story


Voters in the Saskatoon-area constituency of Martensville will be going to the polls in a byelection March 5.

On Monday, Premier Lorne Calvert called an election in the constituency that has been vacant since the death of Saskatchewan Party MLA Ben Heppner last September.

Calvert said he wanted the election to be held before the start of the spring sitting of the legislature, March 7.

Heppner's daughter Nancy has been nominated by the Saskatchewan Party. The Liberals have nominated Nathan Friesen, while the New Democrats have chosen John Tzupa as their candidate.


Saturday, February 03, 2007

Friday, February 02, 2007

According to the Baptist Church - Jesus Loves Osama Bin Laden

According to this story


Is it warm in here - or is it just the UN?

I bet this doesn't get a whole lot of coverage on blogging torries


It is now beyond doubt that the Earth's climate is warming and it is "very likely" that most of the increase since the mid-20th century is the result of mankind's activities, a panel of UN scientists reported today.

But it gets even better (or worse, depending on how you look at it)


Achim Steiner, director general of the UN Environment Programme, said the report was a "critical milestone" and Feb 2 2007 would be remembered as "the day the question mark was removed" from the question of whether mankind was warming the planet.


If the environment wasn't on Canadians' minds before, reports like this will put it there

Vote for this Story

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Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Why would the City of Regina get in the way of wind power?

According to this article:


City officials say the wind generators are not authorized in residential areas because of issues related to noise, safety and visual impact on the neighbourhood.
Shouldn't we be doing everything we can to promote and encourage wind power?

Why yes, yes we should.

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

The CPC attack Ads and Dion's Response

Ah, You Tube is a wonderful thing.

Here is (one of) the CPC attack ads on Mr. Dion





Here is Mr. Dion's Response.














I don't know about you, but I think the conservative ad is far better - produced, spoken, message content, message delivery, in just about every conceivable way.

Friday, January 26, 2007

The NDP and ATM Fees - a Historical Perspective

So John Murney over at his blog is making the typical right-wing argument against any sort of government intervention into the "free" market. (Or in this case the "fee" market)


The fact that Canadian banks are very profitable is no excuse for banning ATM fees. Any piece of capital should be able to recoup its costs, and ATM machines are no exception.
He then goes on to say in the comments section (defending his post)

Jeesh! When did profit become a bad thing?!
The answer to Mr. Murney's question is 1545.

That was the first year that King Henry VIII pased an Act "In restraint of usury"

For the banks to charge me $1.50 to take out $20.00 of my own money is to charge a service fee at 7.5% - instantaneous. Even if you grant them the whole WEEK to see the profit (yeah right) then that is 390% a year.

Let's see what the paragon of free market philosophy had to say about this - shall we?

In countries where interest is permitted, the law, in order to prevent the extortion of usury, generally fixes the highest rate which can be taken without incurring a penalty. This rate ought always to be somewhat above the lowest market price, or the price which is commonly paid for the use of money by those who can give the most undoubted security.
That little gem is from Adam Smith from his Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.

Are you telling me Adam Smith had it wrong when it came to regulating the free market?

Mr. Murney?

Thursday, January 25, 2007

Finally, Judicial PROOF that Bush stole the election

I can't believe this is not front page news everywhere:


Two election workers were convicted Wednesday of rigging a recount of the 2004 presidential election to avoid a more thorough review in Ohio's most populous county.
So what you say?

Ohio gave President Bush the electoral votes he needed to defeat Democratic Sen. John Kerry in the close election and hold on to the White House in 2004

That's 2, count them, 2 elections that Bush stole.

Um. Impeachment?

Anyone?

Anyone?

Bueller?


Tuesday, January 23, 2007

This is one of the Dumbest Arguments I have Seen from a Blogging Tory

And that is obviously saying something.

Dr. Roy (I cant, just can't, believe he is a real Doctor) has this to say about the possible Hillary Clinton candidacy:


I began to think about other things as well. [sic] One of them being Hillary Clinton and how to stop her from the Presidency[sic]. I had a malicious thought, that perhaps her candidacy violates the spirit of the 22nd amendment of the constitution[sic]. Sionce [sic] her husband cannot run, this is an attempt to bypass the constitution. In any case she acted like a co President for 8 years[sic]. So I think her candidacy is unconstitutional.
Hat Tip cc

Why do Conservatives always mess up financial paperwork?

So it seems that the Alberta Conservatives just sort of, you know, forgot to turn over the required paperwork for the last 20 years of election financing.

It just, you know, slipped their mind.

Every year.

For 20 years.

We can all remember what happened in Saskatchewan when the Conservatives made a bit of slip-up when it came to financial paperwork.

They all went to jail

So I guess this reminds me of a post I made a while back - why Conservatives and Handcuffs just seem to go together so well.

Friday, January 19, 2007

Saskatchewan Progressive Bloggers Site

In my ongoing quest to create a group of Saskatchewan Progressive Bloggers I have created the following web site:

http://www.saskatchewanprogressive.blogspot.com/

This is the start of creating an aggregator/gathering place for the bloggers who are both from Saskatchewan and are progressive.

Hope people find this to be of value.

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Equalization Round Up

Some people have been wondering if the equalization issue has "legs", that is, do people care about it?

Well I know that the blogging community isn't exactly a representative sample of the "real world" but on the other hand, I would guess that we are what pollsters and opinion experts call "opiion shapers". In other words, if we all care about a topic, then we will lead other people to care about a topic.

So lets look in at the blogging world on the latest equalization promise, shall we?

Saskboy writes:


Harper’s gamble that he can pander to Quebec at the expense of Westerners who he’s just screwed over, is going to be called.
The Jurist weighs in:

After the firestorm this week surrounding the Cons' apparent plan to break their promises on equalization, PMS' provincial and federal allies alike are going out of their way to say that nothing's been set in stone - while of course refusing to suggest what else might be on the way instead.
and at Canada's Debate:

Well the shit seems to have hit the fan. Harper’s plan to “fix” the fiscal imbalance has been announced, and not surprisingly people from the provinces most effected (Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland) are the ones who are the most upset.
Cowboys for Social Responsibility:

The province will get $600 million less than the Cartman Tories promised - a backhanded slap costing the province $50 million per Tory MP.
Ken Chapman asks "What is Stephen Harper Thinking?"

Wasn’t it just this kind of pandering to Quebec politics that started the Reform Party in the first place? Wasn’t Stephen Harper around then?
Eugene Plawiuk chimes in:

Call me sceptical, call me a lifelong Albertan, but the True Blue Tory types in Alberta will deny, deny, deny this is a new NEP. Well it is.
Laddie is fairly blunt in his comments:

Stephen "Two-Face" Harper doesn't want to lose the 10 seats that the Conservatives have picked up in Quebec, but the 12 seats in Saskatchewan are up for grabs!
Nicole Martel opines:

No matter how the Conservatives try to position themselves, this proposal will certainly cause backlash from their Western base. Mostly because it is another broken promise to a group that is still dealing with the reversal on income trusts and appointing unelected senators to cabinet posts
The Northern Liberal says:

I can see no other logical explanation for Harper not following through on his promise to exclude resource revenues from the calculation of equalization other than to divert more money into vote-rich Quebec. If you can--please--I'd like to hear it.
And to come full circle, Saskboy again

Harper has done it. He’s given the cheeky middle finger to Saskatchewan.
Wow! This is obviously a pretty important issue - at least in the blogosphere.

Let's get the right-wing reaction from Small Dead Animals on equalization:

sound of crickets chirping

Well, that's even more telling, isn't it?

Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Saskatchewan Progressive Bloggers

So I am a member of both the Progressive Bloggers and the Saskatchewan Bloggers and the people that administer both of those sites are doing great things and are a real asset to the community.

However, I wanted a subset of both of those blog systems and I looked around and there were none.

So I decided to create it.

Announcing the Saskatchewan Progressive Bloggers

Update:
New Web Site for this blogroll here



Yep, got a logo and everything

All I have really done here is create a blogroll that people can put on their website if they want.

The code for doing so is here and you can see it in action over on my side menu under "Sask Progressives"

To put a copy of the Sask Progressives on your blog or Web Page copy the code below:



If this is a useful service to people then great. If this sucks and someone wants to make an actual useful service then great too. I am OK if someone better at coding and with more time than me takes over this project.

Response To Paul Well's Letter Writer

Paul Wells was kind enough to link to my blog yesterday and then (in the spirit of bipartisanship or something) posted an e-mail that he got from a reader criticizing me and/or my blog.


Maybe I’m a bit slow, or maybe it’s the over gleeful partisan nature of you and that mouse thingy you linked to, but I’m not seeing where the Tories are in trouble. We’ve got a Radio Canada leak of possible solutions, and then the Brad Trost quote looks only to guarantee the “best deal” ever, which doesn’t even seem to be violated by the RC leak.
The e-mail writer then went on to say:

Post some information rather than a smirk, or link to someone who can write for an audience that doesn’t already agree with him 1000%. Partisan blogs more than have their role, but to explain to the public outside of Sask. Such partisan abstruseness doesn’t help.
Mr. Wells then went on to eviscerate this person's attack on Wells' blog. Very, very effective.

This is my pale imitation of Mr. Well's - only I will be standing up for my own blog.

1) The Reader (a Graeme H) says "the over gleeful partisan nature of you and that mouse thingy you linked to"

First of all, Paul Wells is anything but partisan as he himself so eloquently points out. I on the other hand, have made no secret that I support the NDP. I am a member of the NDP as any sort of half-assed examination of my site would tell you.

I mean, my god, if the trolls over on Small Dead Animals can figure it out, we are not talking rocket science here, and they attack me for being an NDP shill and a lefty crazy all the time.

Secondly, "mouse thingy"? - I'm hurt. :-)


2) link to someone who can write for an audience that doesn’t already agree with him 1000%. Partisan blogs more than have their role, but to explain to the public outside of Sask. Such partisan abstruseness doesn’t help.

The link that Mr Wells was kind enough to provide simply listed the quotes, from Hansard, of the 12 conservative MP's. If these words now seemed bias and partisan - it is because the CONSERVATIVES LIED. Nothing I say or do can change that fact and if the reader doesn't like it, perhaps he should take it up with the CONSERVATIVES who LIED and not me and my blog for pointing it out.

Sheesh!


3) I’m not seeing where the Tories are in trouble. We’ve got a Radio Canada leak of possible solutions, and then the Brad Trost quote looks only to guarantee the “best deal” ever,

Right here, right now, I am going to predict the future. The Conservatives will take out resource revenues from the equalization formula and claim, as a result, that they lived up to their election promise. Then they will apply a cap (the O'brian formula) and say that this is nothing new and that they have still lived up to their promise.

Here is the problem. Applying the cap would mean that Saskatchewan would get a few million a year from the Federal Government. Brad Trost will claim that this is still the "best deal that Saskatchewan has ever had" because yes, 99 kicks to the head from the Torys is better than the 100 kicks to the head from the Liberals.

Heres the problem. The conservatives will still be breaking their promise.

Here is what the (now) Prime Minister Harper had to say when he was in opposition:

The Prime Minister is also failing Saskatchewan on equalization. The government promised to reform the equalization program in 2004 for Saskatchewan. The government now says it will not get to that until at least 2006, costing Saskatchewan over $750 million in lost revenue. When will the Prime Minister overrule his finance minister and make the changes necessary, so Saskatchewan does not lose this money?
Here is what Saskatchewan Conservative MP Tom Lukiwski said


"By my understanding, if Saskatchewan were allowed to keep 100% of its non-renewable natural resources, it would mean an estimated $800 million yearly and perhaps even higher than that".

"In fact, if Saskatchewan had a proper, fair and just equalization formula right now, at today's oil prices Saskatchewan would be receiving, by my calculations, anywhere between $800 million and $1.5 billion in additional revenue each and every year. Of course we do not have that agreement"

And here is what Saskatchewan Conservative MP Brad Trost had to say:

Brad Trost said while caucus discussions are confidential, MPs from Saskatchewan are intent on keeping their promise to get a new equalization deal for the province. "Let me give you a 100 per cent guarantee, Prime Minister Harper will give Saskatchewan the best deal it's ever had from any prime minister ever, " he said. Asked if that would be the same deal the Conservatives campaigned on, Trost said: "If it isn't, it better be better."
For the record they did not campaign on putting a "cap" on payments after taking resource revenues out of the system.

So the numbers that the Conservatives talked about (inlcuding Mr. Harper) were in the $750 million to $1.5 billion range.

If Saskatchewan gets $100 million a year is that living up to what they said?

I think not.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Harper to "Fix" fiscal imbalance - or you know, not

According to the CBC Prime Minister Harper is all set to keep one of his major election promises and be an all-around good guy:


Radio Canada reported Monday that Ottawa will increase transfer payments to the provinces in the area of education, post-secondary education and infrastructure.
Continue Article

As well, Quebec would get an extra $1.5 billion in equalization payments.
Oh wait.

I don't live in Quebec.

Make that, Harper is about to deliver a screw job to Saskatchewan


From the story:

It suggested that half of the revenues of the provinces drawn from natural resources be included in the calculation of equalization payments.
What was that promise again? The one the Conservatives made in their platform?

You know, in writing?

Oh yeah:

Work to achieve with the provinces permanent changes to the equalization formula which would ensure that non-renewable natural resource revenue is removed from the equalization formula to encourage economic growth. We will ensure that no province is adversely affected from changes to the equalization formula.




Lies.

All lies.

Vote for this Story

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Update:

As Greg over at political staples points out:


So Alberta and Saskatchewan (otherwise known as the core base) will be opposed. Danny Williams will be hoping mad and Dalton "election year" McGuinty will pile on. Out of the frying pan into....another frying pan Ms. Ambrose - this will be very interesting.
Well, at least one of the top Conservative Cabinet Ministers is on it. I mean, Ms. Ambrose did such a good job in Environment that she got this.... promotion.

right?

right?

Uperdate:

Buckdog has a nasty-looking picture of Harper up and also seems to have a copy of the conservative platform. I smell the NDP campaign in Saskatchewan being formed right here on the web!

And here is what one of the blogging tories has to say:


This will probably cause some trouble with Sasketchewan ,Alberta and Newfoundland. I think it is worth that risk.
Typical. If it helps Quebec, screw the west!


Upper-UpperDate:

Paul Wells is in on the act!


As another election promise breathes its last gasps

Hey, someone in Lorne Calvert's office: remind me the names of those Saskatchewan Conservative MPs who used to bug the Liberals about resource revenues and equalization? Let's make their lives hell, shan't we...
Mr. Wells, if the Premier's office doesn't get back to you you just have to look here

Monday, January 15, 2007

Even Republicans are turning on Bush

Not even the died-in-the-wool, whatever-you-say-is-right, brand of Republicans are starting to turn on Bush. From a Newsweek story:


Bush expected at least a handful of Republican senators—critics like Chuck Hagel and George Voinovich—to run from a troop increase. But the White House was surprised when even pro-war senators, including Sam Brownback and Lisa Murkowski, came out against the plan.


Perhaps it has something to do with the polling numbers


For the second straight day, 35% of Americans approve of the way that George W. Bush is performing his role as President. That’s the lowest level of Approval ever measured by Rasmussen Reports.
And that's from a pro-bush polling company

*sheesh*

Saturday, January 13, 2007

Thursday, January 11, 2007

The police get help from a Ninja!

What's that you say - this must be from my comic book collection?

Nope.

the BBC.


Police on Tyneside are seeking a man carrying a sword who came to the aid of plain clothes officers during a burglary attempt.

The officers were threatened by a man with a knife after they discovered armed men trying to break into a house in Laygate, South Shields.

Another man armed with a samurai sword appeared and attacked the man with the knife, before leaving the scene.

Pat Robertson talks to God

I didn't know this, but I guess every year, God takes some time to talk to Pat Robertson and give him some guidance about the year ahead. This has all the trappings of typical so-called prognosticators. For example:


In May, Robertson said God told him that storms and possibly a tsunami were to crash into America's coastline in 2006. Even though the U.S. was not hit with a tsunami, Robertson on Tuesday cited last spring's heavy rains and flooding in New England as partly fulfilling the prediction.
So basically, whatever happens, turns out to be what was predicted, even if it is the complete opposite.

Well this year I hope the same type of "I'm right because I was complete wrong" thing happens again because this time there is something scary happening:

Pat Robertson said Tuesday God has told him that a terrorist attack on the United States would result in "mass killing" late in 2007. "I'm not necessarily saying it's going to be nuclear," he said during his news-and-talk television show "The 700 Club" on the Christian Broadcasting Network. "The Lord didn't say nuclear. But I do believe it will be something like that."
Hat Tip to Scott Feschuck who points out:

Don’t you just hate it when an omnipotent deity fails to be specific while foretelling the deaths of millions of your countrymen and women? Frustrating!)
Plus, you know, wouldn't it have been great if God had made that prediction back in, oh, I don't know, .....

2001.

Wednesday, January 10, 2007

Khan's Missing Report

So Paul Well's Muses about a missing report. His musing is covered by Cherniak and Calgary Grit.

Greg at political staples doesn't seem to know what all the fuss is about:


You know, the report that not a single soul gave a damn about a week ago. I must and I mean must see that report now!
Do you remember back when then Opposition member Deb Grey was looking for a report that the government wouldn't or couldn't produce?

This public works magician has put out the all points bulletin to help him find this famous half million dollar missing report. His Liberal logic would try to dictate to us that these so-called supporting documents he keeps talking about ought to be enough and why is anyone worried or embarrassed about it. The question is this: why and how does the government keep taxpayers' dollars just vanishing into thin air?
Didn't that lead to something?

Oh yeah.

The sponsorship scandal.

Strange where things get started - isn't it?

Tuesday, January 09, 2007

New iPod / iPhone

So to take a break from politics for a minute - the information is starting to trickle in that Apple is introducing a new combination iPod / iPhone today.

Some of the highlights:

It is a Widescreen iPod / Mobile Phone with a 3.5" screen with 160 pixels per inch

There are Touchscreen controls that change based on what you are doing (phone call has phone buttons, music has music buttons etc) and supoosedly it somehow ignores unintended touches

It will syncs with iTunes, just like the iPod using a cradle and will Sync music, movies, podcasts, TV, photos, contacts, e-mail, notes, bookmarks, calendars, etc. all through iTunes

Includes a 2 Megapixel camera, SIM card, 3.5mm headphone jack. It will support GSM + EDGE, WiFi, Bluetooth, quad-band phone, and SMS is one of the main features of the phone, it will also do e-mail (like a blackberry)

this sounds like something that I want!

Uperdate: Sure, now the real media wants to play

Update: Engadget has pictures!






Friday, January 05, 2007

Wajid Khan in his own words and pictures

So Wajid Khan has crossed from the Liberals to the Conservatives according to some bloggers

How inconvenient the Internet Archive Wayback Machine must be for MP's who cross the floor:

Mr. Khan with the Old Liberal Leader:


Mr. Khan with the New Liberal Leader:



Some words of Mr. Khan's:

Wajid Khan Press Release 2004-06-29
Canadians choose Liberals to deliver the country they want

I guess they now choose someone different?


Wajid Khan Press Release 2004-06-03
Liberals boost robust economy with $2 billion investment

That was then and this is now


Integrity and Accountability: Faith in our government is fundamental. Through real reform , open dialogue and greater transparency, Paul Martin and the new Liberal Party will restore faith in our government.
Or, you know, not.

And from hansard

Mr. Wajid Khan (Mississauga—Streetsville, Lib.): Mr. Speaker, I welcome the opportunity to contribute to today's debate. In considering the question of a supposed fiscal imbalance, let me begin by suggesting that we should all take a break from rhetoric and reflect on economic reality and national responsibility.

As was highlighted in the recent Speech from the Throne and the Prime Minister [Paul Martin] reply, Canada has acquired an outstanding record of economic achievement. In fact, our federation and its federal [Liberal] government are doing many things right.


And some more from hansard:

Mr. Wajid Khan (Mississauga—Streetsville, Lib.): Mr. Speaker, after years of making anti-immigrant statements, the Conservatives are now trying to cast themselves as pro-immigrant. How ironic.
Ironic, eh? Pot calling for a Mr. Kettle. Something about being black?

And so on and so on from hansard:

Mr. Wajid Khan (Mississauga—Streetsville, Lib.): Mr. Speaker, the Conservative Party has just demonstrated why it has been in opposition for 12 years and I anticipate it will remain there for another 12.

Let me set the record straight. Before I do that, the rambling speeches that I have heard in the last couple of days are full of inaccuracies to the extent that they could probably make the Guinness Book of World Records.

The fact is the deficit, unemployment, interest rates and the bankruptcies were soaring when that party was in power. Surplus after surplus after surplus has brought nothing but good to the Canadian people. The rates are low, affordability is high, tax cuts of $100 billion have been given to the people over the last five years and the country is prosperous. [under a Liberal Government]







Thursday, January 04, 2007

Alright. all you Global Warming Denyers out there

Argue with this:


The New Federal Cabinet - Winners and Losers

Rona Ambrose Moves from Environment to Intergovernmental Affairs - Loser

This is a bit of a downgrade for Ambrose but with here skills in this area it is actually a better fit for her. The real winner here: The environment


John Baird Moves from Treasury Board to Environment - Winner

This is an upgrade for Baird but the problem is that the CPC is in negotiations with the other parties (particularly the NDP) when it comes to environment issues. Baird is going to have to drop his "whatever the question in QP kick the shit out of the Liberals" level of partizanship and learn to work and play well with others. The real winner here: The liberal critic for the treasury board.

Rob Nicholson Moves from House Leader to Justice - Winner

This was a big surprise and a major upgrade for Rob Nicholson. Given his stance on things like capital punishment and abortion back in the Mulroney days, look for the same brand of social conservatism as Toews brought to the portfolio. The real winner here: Rob Nicholson


Monte Solberg Mooves from Immigration to Human Resources - Winner

This is a lateral transfer or perhaps an upgrade to Solberg. 'nuff said.

Vic Toews Moves from Justice to Treasury Board - Loser

Serious downgrade for Toews. And as I said earliers, probably not due to his conservative views given who the replacement was. Perhaps he just wan't a good cabinet minister? The real winner: Provincial Justice departments who repotedly hated dealing with Toews' office.

Peter van Loan Moves from Intergovernmental Affairs to House Leader - Loser

He loses a portfolio and a ministery and gains having to shepard things through a minority parliament. The real winner: Rob Nicholson

Jason Kenney as secretary of state for multiculturalism and Canadian identity

The real loser: Multiculturalism

Here's an overview of other blogger reactions:

Calgary Grit:

If you take those four spots as young MPs being groomed for future Cabinet positions then, boy, does it ever suck to be James Moore this morning. Diane Ablonczy has also got to be feeling a bit jilted that another Calgary MP got a Cabinet spot before she did.

So that brings us to the shuffle part of this Cabinet shuffle. And it's really a mulligan for Harper. Rona Ambrose's expertise made her a logical choice for Intergovernmental Affairs back in February so that's what she gets now. Not that it really matters since it appears that Harper's Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs has fewer responsibilities than his chauffeur. Vic Toews was also a brutal choice for Justice but now that the messy Same Sex vote is beyond him, Harper has moved in a much more competent and moderate man to the portfolio. As for Baird...well, good luck - he'll need it. I'm really not sure what to make of the Solberg/Finley moves and I suspect they'll get overshadowed quite a bit; I'd be curious to hear any theories on those ones.
Buckdog

Jason Kenney, former Reform Party MP and extreme right wing ideologue is the new Secretary of State for multiculturalism. His former job as CEO of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation has prepared him to be a 'fox in the hen house' and Harper is going to use those skills on multiculturalism.

My Bhlag points out the problems for those who praised Harper's small cabinet earlier

The size of cabinet has increased from 27 to 32 positions, with a smaller percentage of women on the team. So I guess, according to the right whingers, PMS' new cabinet is less effective, less efficient, doesn’t pay attention to the concerns of taxpayers and is now primed for nonsense.
Jason Cherniak

2) Jason Kenney is now in cabinet. To earn this spot he misled Parliament, fibbed in his apology and supported a terrorist organization. He might be a good Parliamentary performer, but I cannot wait for his next big mistake.

3) Dianne Abolonzy has been overlooked again. Harper should be ashamed.

4) A number of Secretaries of State have been added. Harper obviously recognizes now that it was a mistake to start with such a small cabinet. Those Conservatives who lauded him for the move at first will surely condemn him now for backtracking. Or admit that they were wrong...

5) John Baird is good at pushing just about any subject in the most partisan way possible. His selection suggests that Harper was looking for a better salesperson on the environment and not a better policy. I predict that this will not work and Baird will end up looking like a bully.
Accidental Deliberations


While John Baird will presumably hold up to questioning better than Rona Ambrose did in the Environment role, it's worth noting his own dubious record to date.

Baird's previous assignment likewise involved the Cons' signature piece of legislation for the year. But by the time the Accountability Act became law, it had been drained of many of the Cons' promises and had undergone major revisions to clean up serious drafting oversights...resulting in an awful lot of work for a very small increase in actual accountability. And while that kind of outcome may have been acceptable on a file where the Cons' main competitors genuinely preferred to see nothing done, it won't be good enough in an area where every other federal party has taken up the cause.

Moreover, it was Baird's stubborn refusal to acknowledge the realities of existing election law that exposed the Cons' convention fee scandal. And PMS surely can't relish the prospect of the Cons' similarly-flawed assumptions on the environment coming to light.
Galloping Beaver

Ambrose was made the minister of intergovernmental affairs at the morning swearing-in ceremony at Rideau Hall in Ottawa. She will also be minister of western economic diversification

I'm sure she will ponder the state of Prince Rupert, unless she continues to take all her direction from the hacks in the Prime Minister's Office which would result in her doing absolutely nothing of value and blaming the previous government for any and all conditions she feels compelled not to address.

And the final word, fittingly, goes to Paul Wells:


Have you noticed that cabinet shuffles routinely get more attention than, say, cabinets do? Does it particularly matter which minister holds which portfolio if, after nearly a year, packs of trained pundits can't identify photos of some of them?

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

FUSION power breakthrough!

Every environmentalist in the world should be salivating over the possibility that this is true.

The International Academy of Science has announced thier Outstanding Technology of the Year Award.

For 2006 the award goes to Dr. Robert Bussard:


Dr. Robert W. Bussard is an American physicist working primarily in nuclear fusion energy research. Bussard received his PhD from Princeton. He is currently functioning as co-founder and director of Energy/Matter Conversion Corporation. He is the former Assistant Director to the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission and has held prominent positions at Los Alamos National Laboratories, Oakridge Labs, and TRW Systems.
For what technological breakthrough did Dr. Bussard win?


Dr. Bussard and his team at Energy/Matter Conversion Corporation, after close to 20 years of hard work, have developed a revolutionary radiation-free fusion process that could change the world as we know it today.

Fusion is the energy that powers everything in the universe. The sun's energy comes from fusion. Alternatively, fission is the process whereby heavy atoms, which are nearly unstable, are split into two radioactive atoms. Fusion, on the other hand, is when two light atoms merge.


If this is true, and works, then this in the energy breakthrough that we have been waiting for.

read more here

Hey - Remember those "Hinterland Who's Who" Comercials?

I seemed to have missed this one (Watch the whole thing - it's worth it)




Awesome

Monday, January 01, 2007

Paul Wells' "Right Side Up"

This is one of the best political books I have read in years. I am looking at my bookshelf and there is about 150+ books on politics and elections and campaigns.

There are only a handfull that are better than Paul Wells' new book.

It actually made me laugh out loud a number of times.

It is also full of some very good insights into the election campaigns of 2004 and 2006 (of particualr note is his anaysis of "groupthink" and the Martin insider team)

If you read this blog then I know where your interests lie.

Read this book

Thursday, December 28, 2006

The Saskatchewan Conservative Party on the Environment

With all the recent foo-fa-rah about the environment (an issue that I think - and hope - will continue to rise in prominence) and kyoto and such, I thought it would be instructive to look at some choice quotes from the Saskatchewan Conservative Party.


“Now we talk about Kyoto in the past and how the people over there [The NDP] supported Kyoto, and they did not really believe the fact that the Kyoto accord was basically a transfer of money from richer nations to poorer nations. They [The NDP] couldn’t see through that.”
Sask Party MLA Yogi Huyghebaert: October 30th 2006

"The Kyoto accord could have some real negative impact [sic] on Saskatchewan…”
Sask Party MLA Glen Hart (Then Environment Critic) April 19th, 2005
"...look what has the government done concerning the Kyoto agreement[....] And now we see through extreme government regulation the NDP are putting more restrictions on the businesses of this province."
Sask Party MLA Randy Weekes: (Then Environment Critic) Dec 13, 2002
"We should be sending a clear statement that we reject the implementation of the Kyoto accord"
Sask Party MLA Jason Dearborn: Dec 10, 2002
"So what then is the Kyoto Protocol? Well, Mr. Speaker, it’s not about science. It is crass, old-fashioned politics — socialist politics — intent on redistributing income led by overzealous Environment department bureaucrats."
Sask Party MLA Arlene Jule: Dec 10, 2002
"But the problem, Mr. Speaker, is that the Kyoto Protocol, the Kyoto accord, is a flawed agreement. It’s an impossible agreement, Mr. Speaker."
Sask Party MLA Elwin Hermanson (Former Leader): Dec 10, 2002
"The Kyoto accord, which this government supported, when fully implemented has the potential to seriously penalize oil and gas development."
Sask Party MLA Lyle Stewert: March 27, 2003
"Under Kyoto in its present form, those steps are leading down the wrong road. Scientists don’t agree. They can’t assure us that there is a trend to global warming."
Sask Party MLA Doreen Eagles: Dec 10, 2002
“If the agreements — the CO2 agreements, Kyoto — come into place, that will be a severe impediment to Saskatchewan…”
Sask Party MLA Dan D’Autremont: October 27th 2004

So they deny the science behind global warming, they claim it is a "socialist" policy dreamed up by environmental bureaucrats to redistribute wealth to poor nations (which they obviously also have a problem with).

In terms of the effects on Saskatchewan? According to the Sask Party this "extreme regulation" would have negative impacts, restrictions on business, would impede oil and gas development (gasp) and be a severe impediment to the province.

This, this is Brad Wall's Kinder, Gentler, Sask Party




Friday, December 22, 2006

Conservative MP tells outright Lie in Letter to the Editor

According to the Saskatchewan NDP caucus website: Brad Trost, one of the Conservative MP's from Saskatchewan, said the following in a letter to the editor:


"Finally, it should be noted that only the Conservatives are fighting for Saskatchewan to receive the full benefits of it's natural resources. The Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois are opposed to Saskatchewan receiving those benefits and the federal NDP has studiously avoided the issue. Calvert should be lobbying federal Leader Jack Layton to support the Conservatives"
The site then goes on to list the three-year record of Jack Layton and the Federal NDP fighting for Saskatchewan on this issue.

Woops!

Like the site says, "why the big lie, Mr. Trost?"



Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Canadians Read the Most Blogs in the G8

Turns out what we are doing may have some value after all

Monday, December 18, 2006

Video game involves teenagers killing non-Christians

It just goes to show that it not just the right-wing that can make the "Please, won't somebody think of the children" argument. We have here a Left-Wing "Familiy Values" Campaign - that will predictably be attacked by the religious right.

What would your typical right-wing Christian think of a game that had the following discription:


a game that "involves teenagers in killing non-Muslims and Muslims who do not convert to your particular form of Islam and that "teaches players that those 'seeking peace for all mankind' are with the forces of the Great Satan
They would go ballistic? Right?

So why is this ok?


a game that "involves teenagers in killing non-Christians and Christians who do not convert to your particular form of Christianity and that "teaches teenagers that those 'seeking peace for all mankind' are with the forces of the Antichrist"
according to this progressive group - it's not OK.

To our sisters and brothers at Left Behind Games,


We, the undersigned, write to you as Christians during this Christmas season in which we celebrate the birth of the Prince of Peace, requesting that you immediately remove your video game, Left Behind: Eternal Forces (LBEF) from your product line and recall it from the store shelves of your distributors.

While we affirm your right to make a profit from video game entertainment and your freedom to hold beliefs that may run contrary to our own, we will not sit idly by while your game has been rated “T” for “Teen”

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Recycling is Sexy

Thursday, December 14, 2006

Conservatives Break Promise to Saskatchewan

Remember when the conservatives made the promise to Saskatchewan in the last election campaign about the equalization deal?

Here is their platform:



The plan
A Conservative government will:
• Work with the provinces in order to achieve a long-term agreement which would address the issue of fiscal imbalance in a permanent fashion.
• Work to achieve with the provinces permanent changes to the equalization formula which would ensure that non-renewable natural resource revenue is removed from the equalization formula to encourage economic growth. We will ensure that no province is adversely affected from changes to the equalization formula.

"Ensure that non-renewable natural resource revenue is removed from the equalization formula" sounds like a pretty specific campaign promise to me.

And remember what Conservative MP Brad Trost said:
Asked if that would be the same deal the Conservatives campaigned on, Trost said: "If it isn't, it better be better."
So therefore, unless Trost is the biggest liar in what will be a caucus full of liars if this deal does not happen then the Conservatives will HAVE to live up to this commitment

But that was then and this is now. NOW what is Trost saying?

Trost is backing away from the $800 million that's long been talked about as what it would mean to Saskatchewan. Trost says it will all depend on what goes into the formula. He says his government is consulting with all of the provinces, to ensure there's a fair deal for all.


And what does MP Gerry Ritz have to say?


But just how much money Saskatchewan would get under a new equalization formula has not been determined.

"We're well on our way to doing that. Any kind of dollar figure is up to different interpretations, of course," Ritz said in an interview from Ottawa.


I've been calling it all along:

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

The Wheat Board and Conservative Manipulation

Is there any doubt that if it was put to a vote by farmers that the Wheat Board would remain?

From CBC:


The results of the Canadian Wheat Board election are in, and it appears those who want to maintain the board's monopoly over exports of Prairie wheat and barley have come out on top.

Five of the 10 farmer-director spots were up for grabs and, according to one of the successful candidates, four out of the five elected on Sunday support the existing "single-desk" system for marketing grain.


So what do the conservatives have to say about this 80% endorsement of the single desk system?

"Farmers are divided on this, I think," Strahl said.
Arrrrrrrggggggggg!

So much for democracy

Saturday, December 09, 2006

Conservatives Break Promise to Saskatchewan

As I said in an earlier post:


The conservative MPs from Saskatchewan told the people of this province to vote for them in the last election campaign because they would deliver on an equalization deal for the province. Now they are cutting and running from that promise
Premier Calvert went to Ottawa to ask, if it wasn't too much trouble, could Harper please, please live up to his promise.

You know - those promises?

The things he claims he always keeps?

Not so much

It turns out that the lastest news isn't so good


According to Calvert, nothing Harper said suggested he intends to keep his $800 million-a-year promise to Saskatchewan. In fact, the prime minister even hinted he would adopt the Al O'Brien commission report that would cap the formula, the Saskatchewan premier said. That would mean Saskatchewan won't get one thin dime more than it does now.
the story goes on to say


Calvert is being purely political -- and, frankly, a bit nasty -- but there's really no reason to believe that his assessment of his meeting with Harper is anything but accurate. In fact, given the duplicitous and mealy-mouthed displays we continue to see from the Saskatchewan Conservative MPs whenever the equalization file comes up, there's every reason to suspect Calvert is completely justified in now playing the political card.

And finally, on the Conservative Hypocrisy:


...in an interview with James Wood of the Saskatoon StarPhoenix on Friday, [Carol]Skelton had the audacity to scold Calvert for this poor "negotiation" tactic.

"There are still negotiations going on," Skelton aid. "When you negotiate -- and the premier of all people should realize -- when you negotiate you don't go out babbling to the media. If I was dealing with someone I wouldn't be kicking them in the shins, shall we say."

But Ms. Skelton, you promised the $800 million in the election. There are no negotiations here. Either you're an honest politician who keeps a promise or not. Which is it, Ms. Skelton?


Exactly, which is it?

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

I can't imagine why the War on Terrorism isn't Working

From the New York Times:


FOR the past several months, I’ve been wrapping up lengthy interviews with Washington counterterrorism officials with a fundamental question: “Do you know the difference between a Sunni and a Shiite?”

...

But so far, most American officials I’ve interviewed don’t have a clue. That includes not just intelligence and law enforcement officials, but also members of Congress who have important roles overseeing our spy agencies. How can they do their jobs without knowing the basics?
How?

Poorly, that's how

Monday, December 04, 2006

Tom Lukiwski should be kicked out of the Conservative Caucus

Note: Blogger Beta is screwing around with things - so forgive the weird looking post

Hat tip to Accidental Deliberations

Based on this Hill Time's story:


Tory MP Tom Lukiwski told The Hill Times. "I do know this. When he discussed his motion in caucus, our Quebec members of Parliament were absolutely overjoyed. I mean there was a couple of them frankly who had tears in their eyes," Mr. Lukiwski (Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Sask.) said last week following Question Period on the Hill. When asked whether he was overstating the facts, Mr. Lukiwski said: "I'm not kidding."
Isn't that why Garth Turner was kicked out of Caucus? - For talking about what went on in a caucus meeting?

Let's Review

While maverick MP Garth Turner says he has no idea why the Conservative caucus kicked him out, CTV News has learned he was warned a month ago to stop playing reporter on his blog.

*snip*

As to suggestions he broke caucus confidentiality through injudicious postings on his widely-read blog, Turner said, "go and read it, and make up your own mind."

Saturday, December 02, 2006

Alberta Leadership Update

Early returns are starting to come in


With 26 of 83 constituencies reporting, Dinning had 37 per cent of the votes cast in the final round of voting to name the next leader of the province's governing Progressive Conservative Party. Stelmach, a former agriculture and intergovernmental affairs minister, was second with 35 per cent and rookie backbencher Ted Morton was third at 28 per cent.

Unless Dinning can get 50% on the first ballot Stelmach is bound to win.

Of Course, I picked Iggy in 5 ballots today so don't take me too seriously

Update: Hey! I can predict something - Stelmach wins.

Layton on Dion

Jack Layton's keynote address to NDP convention
Sun 10 Sep 2006

And I quote:


And then there's a son of this city -- Stephane Dion.

A man with whom I have fundamental disagreements about how Canada should build and renew itself.

But also a man who is, if I may say so across the partisan divide, distinct from his principal opponents in being a committed Canadian and a man of principle and conviction.

And therefore almost certain not to be elected leader of the Liberal party.


Woops!

Liberal Leadership Final Results

Scott Brison is the kiss of Death:

As a Conservative moved to Jim Prentice - Prentice Drops Off the ballot
Moved unanimous support of Peter Mackay and the PC Party - the party folds

So Brison Becomes a Liberal

Becomes a Liberal Cabinet Minister - The Liberals lose power
Goes to Bob Rae - Ray Drops off
Goes to Michael Ignatieff - Iggy Drops off.

Now I can only assume that Brison supports Dion.

Too bad for Dion.

I will post my final thoughts on this whole thing tomorrow - I'm politic'ed out for the day!

Yeah, Yeah, I was wrong. Sue me.

Liberal Leadership Third Ballot Results

My new third ballot prediction:

New 3rd ballot Prediction
--------------------------
37.2% - Ignatieff
35.0% - Dion
27.8% - Rae


Actual Results
-----------------------
37.0% - Dion
34.5% - Iggnatief
28.5% - Rae

I got the Rae part right but the other two have basically switched.

Rae drops off and I think he will go to Iggnatief. As long as 55% of Rae's people go to Iggy then Iggy can still win

Liberal Leadership Predictions Update

Kennedy Supports Dion!

Well, my prediction has gone to hell in a handbasket. In terms of the specifics.

My old 4th ballot prediction was as follows:

4th Ballot
----------------
43.9% - Ignatieff
29.2% - Rae
26.9% - Kennedy

Now with Kennedy out and supporting Dion I had to re-run some numbers. Most of Kennedy's supporters WILL go to Dion but enough will bleed to Iggy and Rae to keep it interesting.

New 3rd ballot Prediction
--------------------------
37.2% - Ignatieff
35.0% - Dion
27.8% - Rae

Rae will then drop off and support Iggy. So Iggy in 4 rather than Iggy in 5.

Maybe.

This is all pure specuation at this point

Liberal Leadership Second Ballot Results

1st ballot - My Prediction - Actual - Difference
-----------------------------------------------------
Ignatieff -- 36.3% - 31.6% - 4.7% short
Rae ------- 23.6% - 24.1% - .5% over
Dion ------ 18.3% - 20.8% - 2.5% short
Kennedy-- 17.3% - 18.8% - 1.5% over
Dryden --- 04.0% - 4.7% - 0.7% over

Iggy is still a little short but we are on pace for an Iggy in 5 victory. I see some deviation from my prediction if Kennedy drops and goes to Dion before the next ballot but I imagine that they will wait and see if they can get Dryden's people - which will move them ahead of Dion as per my prediction.

My prediction all hangs on the next ballot - either I am completly right from here on in or it all goes to hell in a handbasket

Friday, December 01, 2006

Liberal Leadership First Ballot Results

1st ballot - My Prediction - Actual - Difference
-----------------------------------------------------
Ignatieff - 33.3% - 29.3% - 4% short
Rae ------ 20.8% - 20.3% - .5% short
Dion ------ 17.2% - 17.8% - .6% short
Kennedy-- 16.4% - 17.7% - 1.3% over
Dryden --- 04.5% - 4.9% - 0.4% over
Volpe ----- 03.4% - 3.2% - 0.2% under
Brison ---- 03.2% - 4.0% - 0.8% over
Findlay --- 01.2% - 2.7% - 1.5% over

I got all the order right except for Brison and Volpe - but Volpe announced he was dropping off before people went into vote.

You will note that I called the Dion/Kennedy Switch

So far my prediction is on track - Iggy in 5 ballots.

Liberal Leadership Speechs

Quick Notes:

Dryden was good but spent to much time talking about hockey.

Iggy sucked ass, it was just a bunch of applause lines tacked together

Dion's speech was arlight but not overwhelming

Kennedy and Rae gave barnburners and Rae without notes!

In my opinion Bryson's was the best speech of the night but I guess that is why I am a dipper - give me a bunch of policy and discussion of issues over talking about who can win any day of the week.

:-)

Liberal Leadership Delegate Update

According to the Iggy Camp (via Kinsella) the following are the numbers of registered delegates:

(The percentage numbers are percentage of total registered delegates)

Michael Ignatieff ------ 1059 (31.7%)
Bob Rae --------------- 689 (20.6%)
Gerard Kennedy ------ 619 (18.5%)
Stéphane Dion --------- 550 (16.5%)
Ken Dryden ----------- 161 (4.8%)
Scott Brison ----------- 125 (3.7%)
Joe Volpe ------------- 105 (3.1%)
Martha Hall-Findlay -- 33 (1.0%)

I assume this does not include ex-officio delegates so this is just a rough estimate of the first ballot

Final Liberal Leadership Predictions

This is largely speculation and the application of a bit of mathematical analysis based on previous convention track records

1st ballot
-----------------
33.3% - Ignatieff
20.8% - Rae
17.2% - Dion
16.4% - Kennedy
04.5% - Dryden
03.4% - Volpe
03.2% - Brison
01.2% - Findlay


2nd Ballot
---------------
36.3% - Ignatieff
23.6% - Rae
18.3% - Dion
17.3% - Kennedy
04.0% - Dryden


3rd Ballot
-----------------
37.1% - Ignatieff
24.7% - Rae
19.8% - Kennedy
18.4% - Dion


4th Ballot
----------------
43.9% - Ignatieff
29.2% - Rae
26.9% - Kennedy


5th Ballot
----------------
55.7% - Ignatieff
44.3% - Rae


Final Result - Iggy victory on the 5th ballot

Thursday, November 30, 2006

Monday, November 27, 2006

Federal Cabinet Minister Resigns

National Post:


A cabinet minister in Stephen Harper's government has reportedly resigned in advance of today's vote on a motion to recognize Quebecers as a nation within Canada.

Michael Chong, Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs and MP for the riding of Wellington-Halton Hills, will hold a news conference announcing his resignation this afternoon, according to sources.


I just watched the announcement on Newsworld and it is true, Chong is resigning.

Regardless of the issue or any party's stance on it, and regardless of any political considerations we need more people who will take a stand on principle - in any party.

Mr. Chong obviously felt this strong about the issue and good for him for standing up for what he believes in.

I salute you Mr. Chong - this may be the only time you would get a hard-core dipper like me to say that.

Thursday, November 23, 2006

What do you like about the Liberals? Survay says: Nothing!

SES/Sun Media Poll: What Canadians like/dislike about the Liberal Party of Canada

Canadian (N=1,002, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)

What words would you use to describe what you like, if anything, about the Liberal Party of Canada? [Open-ended]

Top Likes
Like nothing – 22%
Policies/moderate/flexible – 16%
They are ok/as good as any other party – 8%
A good alternative – 5%
Getting better/trying to change – 5%
Reflect society/pan Canadian – 3%

The detailed tables with the sub-tabs by party affiliation and methodology are posted on our website at: http://www.sesresearch.com (BTW we've updated our website...check it out!)

Any use of the poll should identify the source as the “SES/Sun Media Survey.”



I agree. I too "like nothing" about the Liberal Party :-)