Liberal Leadership Final Delgate Predictions
I am leaving these up all weekend (nice way to get out of bloging for the weekend)
25% Ignatieff
19% Rae
17% Kennedy
15% Dion
9% Dryden
6% Brison
5% Volpe
2% Hall-Findlay
that is all
I am leaving these up all weekend (nice way to get out of bloging for the weekend)
25% Ignatieff
19% Rae
17% Kennedy
15% Dion
9% Dryden
6% Brison
5% Volpe
2% Hall-Findlay
that is all
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I think this is getting just a little out of hand, don't you?
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Yesterday I posted about the CPC spending cuts. Today I would like to follow up on the issue - particularly the Saskatchewan perpective.
As Greg over at Polical Staples has pointed out:
His reasoning being that since young people and aboriginals don't vote, this will not impact the CPC a whole lot. This has particualr note in Saskatchewan where the First Nations population is higher than elsewhere. what bothers me the most is one of the programs that they cut for First Nations people was one o the better ones.
"An academic study of the 2004 election, for example, underlines that fewer aboriginals are voting, and Canadians in lower income brackets and young people generally turn up less often at the ballot box."
And the cuts also target people (who Greg points out, don't vote) that need the help the most. People who are helped by say, groups who teach them to read:
Dennis Bevington, the NDP member for Western Arctic, said the $10.8-million cut means "more aboriginal Canadians will get sick and die due to smoking." The were "no consultations, no debate," he said, calling the decision "another sign of just how arrogant and controlling this prime minister is at a time when this country has record surpluses."
And further more, the impact on the museums in Saskchewan from the funding cuts is something the 12 MP's from Saskatchewan are going to here more about.
"This is a black day for us," said Wendy Desbrisay, executive director of the Canadian Literacy Movement. "We did not see this coming."She accused the federal government of "abdicating" its leadership role in encouraging a pan-Canadian literacy strategy.
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The CPC have found themselves with a $13.2 billion surplus. So what do they do?
Why, cut programs of course.
Some of the programs may be good cuts, but how do you justify cutting the following:
- $78.8 million: Elimination of program that gave GST rebates to tourists
Isn't that a tax hike? The CPC is once again raising taxes.
- $13.9 million: Cancellation of National Defence High-Frequency Surface Wave Radar Project
I thought the CPC was all about military spending?
- $4.6 million: Cuts to museum assistance
Shame on you. Philistines.
- $4.6 million: Elimination of the RCMP drug-impaired-driving program's training budget
Tough on Law-and-Order my ass.
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I posted my average calculations here earlier. This is my update with the new Star Poll and the other poll I reported on as well as Fry being taken out (not that that affected the numbers all that much)
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Liberal Leadership
As you may or may not have heard Joe Volpe is under attack for signing up dead members in Quebec.
The Star has the story and this great pic:
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I called it here , the Harper Conservatives in this province are going to screw us royally.
"The plan would mean more money for every province -- with the exception of Newfoundland and Labrador. Quebec would be the biggest winner, likely receiving an extra $1.1-billion a year. Ontario would also benefit, gaining about $900-million through increased transfers for social programs."
Woops. I guess not.
"Saskatchewan would receive an extra $156-million, less than the nearly $1-billion it would get if resource revenues were excluded from the calculation."
That's right, Harper made a commitment in the platform, something he emphasised last time he was here in the province, here is what Harper said about equalization:
Resource-rich provinces such as Newfoundland and Labrador, Saskatchewan and Alberta had hotly opposed including their oil and gas wealth in the calculation. They insisted non-renewable resources be excluded -- a position also taken by the Conservatives in their 2006 election platform.
Which was quickly pounced on by reporters here in the province:
"I'm certainly aware we made some commitments in that regard. As you know, this government prides itself on fulfilling these commitments."
The media have also been critical of the lapdogs, I mean, MP's of Prime Minister Steve. (PMS)
And then there was my personal favourite: "I've told the province that during these discussions that I'm going to try and not say things that will prejudice the final outcome because we are listening to a range of provincial concerns on these issues."
You don't want to prejudice the final outcome? Of course, you do, sir. You're the prime minister of Canada. It's actually your job to prejudice the outcome, because you're the one that made the blunt, unequivocal promise in a Jan. 12 letter to "exclude non-renewable resources" from the equalization formula and move to a 10-province standard.
And now, with this latest outrage, the media is quick to point out the obvious.
"Saskatchewan Conservative MPs and candidates were crystal clear during the 2006 election campaign when they promised that a Conservative government would exempt Saskatchewan's non-renewable resources from equalization....Seeing that, one can't help but wonder if the federal Conservatives only recently decided to flip-flop on their promise to Saskatchewan? Is that because they believe we can be taken for granted? Or did the Conservatives always plan to break their promise to a province with just 14 seats so they could keep their promise to a province with 75 seats?"
When Prime Minister Harper goes on and on about how he and his government keep their commitments, call them on the bullshit. They are breaking a commitment they made so that they can screw the 14 seats in Saskatchewan to pick up seats in Ontario/Quebec.
Saskatchewan is about to become the country's biggest equalization loser.In its most simplified form, the report states the Harper government is considering implementing an equalization plan that penalizes Saskatchewan more than any other province.
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Equalization
Apparently the Liberals weren't paying much attention to the actual histories of the different leadership candidates. Hence, this story "Rae gave money to NDP Candidates" is shocking.
Shocking, I say.
Who would of thought that an NDP premier would make donations to the NDP - other than Ujjal Dosanjh of course.
Some Liberal reactions from the article:
Yeah, no one likes a group of opportunists who won't take a hard stance on things and vacillate back and forth between right and left, and often appear left-wing but then reveal that they are not.
Liberal MP Jim Karygiannis also said he has problems with the donations. "Playing the field until you sort of decide where you're going and say, 'There's an opportunity here for me,' I think doesn't sound right by a lot of people," he said.
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So this is what a little TOO much truth in advertising gets you:
Read his speech here and his justification here
More than 10,000 protesters took part in a riot in Budapest, Hungary, showering police with stones and bottles in protest against the government.
The violence was sparked by Hungarian prime Ferenc Gyurcsany's admission that he had lied "day and night" to win this year's elections. The leaked tape showsm Gyurcsany, who campaigned on a promise of tax cuts, says: "We lied in the morning and in the evening." Gyurcsany also admits that his government led by Socialist Party has achieved nothing since coming to power.
The turmoil exploded Sunday, when state radio aired an audiotape of Gyurcsany telling members of his ruling Socialist Party that his government had lied about the state of the country's economy throughout its two years in office."We lied throughout the past one and a half or two years," he said. "We lied in the morning, we lied in the evening and also at night."
The remarks came in a conversation taped during a party retreat in May. President Laszlo Solyom said the prime minister's admission has caused a "moral crisis" in Hungary.
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Here are the predictions of people who actually know what they are talking about, the last column is my average of the numbers that other people have generated.
Note: for some reason there is a big gap here, you must scroll down - stupid blogger templates and formatting
democraticSPACE | Cherniak | Cerberus | CalgaryGrit | delegate.count | Average | |
IGNATIEFF | 27.5% | 25-30% | 24% | 26.2% | 33.59% | 27.7% |
KENNEDY | 15.8% | 20-25% | 18% | 18.5% | 17.07% | 19.1% |
RAE | 14.9% | 10-20% | 19% | 15.9% | 14.24% | 15.7% |
DION | 13.4% | 12-15% | 14% | 13.9% | 18.91% | 14.5% |
BRISON | 8.2% | 8-10% | 7% | 6.5% | 4.66% | 7.4% |
VOLPE | 8.1% | 4-8% | 6% | 10.2% | 2.13% | 6.4% |
DRYDEN | 7.7% | 6-10% | 8% | 6.4% | 7.64% | 7.6% |
HALL-FINDLAY | 3.6% | 2-4% | 3% | 2.0% | 1.51% | 2.7% |
FRY | 0.8% | 0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.25% | 0.3% |
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Lorne Calvert, the Premier of Saskatchewan, has made a small change in his cabinet.
On Friday, Regina Elphinstone-Centre MLA Warren McCall was sworn in as minister of corrections and public safety.
He replaces Regina Dewdney's Kevin Yates, who has been in cabinet since February.
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So I made my post on the Dawson College issue and was prepared to leave it at that. But then I couldn't help myself (It's kind of a disease) and I wandered over to SDA to check out their "measured" reaction.
I wasn't disappointed.
And my favorite:
" ctv.ca does not mention this fact: Gamil Rodrigue Gharbi, aka Marc Lepine. Gamil R. Gharbi changed his name to Marc Lepine at age 13."
"Craig Oliver should be on any minute to blame PM Harper's Afghanistan offensive."
"Just imagine if the victims could shoot back."
"There is a place for righteous outrage and anger, a demand for punishment. Heartening as it may be that Canadian Police went in as fast as they did, imagine what the outcome might have been had the populace not been disarmed. This creep opened fire outside. Any armed citizen could have brought him down right there."
"Were the onlookers, those that did not run away, a bunch of neutered Laytonesque wanna be peace-loving negotiators?"
"There have been too many incidents of this sort, not because of a "gun culture" but because of a citizenry dependent on the State for its safety. The State can't do it. The people must."
"Islamic terrorism springs to mind, of course, but I guess we must wait."
"I have known 3 "Gill" families in my travels (all unrelated to each other). They were all from India and (maybe coincidentally) all of the Sikh religion. If this is the case here, it should put an end to the idea of political motivation. Although, I guess that should already be clear by now. "
"Wouldn't you rather die doing something more courageous than voting NDP...?"
"Piss away a few more billions on more gun "control".....but try some "retard" control first"
" I respect Fox as the best source for news but this is getting too much."
"Why isn't talibanjack there to talk and negotiate with the shooters. "
"Next up, Jack Layton blames the US inspired Dewey Decimal System for illiteracy amongst Canada's Northern youth."
"FOX I would hope would at least wait until the shooting stopped before making a comment."
"What's so funny about fighting off an armed guy with a knapsack, esp. if you and your friends outnumber the nut? Unless you're a no-balls coward of course."
"While it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees, that's the sort of thing you have to learn over time. A teenager generally doesn't know that yet, and their first instinct is to save themselves - the basic survival instinct."
"People that tell themselves that "it's not my problem" will run. Those that feel no duty to help thair fellow man will run. Those that have been taught to irrationally fear guns will run. And maybe many good prople would run, maybe I would run; but if I did, I would be ashamed of my (in)actions foreve"
"this is a glowing reminder to the public that a gun in the right hands saves lives"
"The inevitable political spin, while inevitable, has started already. Anyone trying to use this tradegy for political gain should be seriously chastised.
Layton is an idiot. I'll predict that the gun used (if it's only one) was either legally purchased, or stolen within this country and it was an SKS." [Empasis mine]
"Thank God the Conservatives are at the helm right now."
"How much taxpayers money was stolen under the watchfull eyes of the Lieberals?
$40 million?"
"Enough weeping and "grief counselors"."
"I agree with benning. Enough, already, with the grief counsellors. Canadians have got to wake up, smell the coffee, get off their butts, and KICK ASS when it comes to this stuff."
"turmoil in Algeria is encouraging the spread of an international form of Islamism that threatens to polarize rather than unite a divided society"
It never fails, see my previous posts on this topic. The SDA comments forum always comes up with the best irony in the world.
"The MSM needs to calm down and concentrate on getting accurate information at this point"
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SmallDeadAnimals
I spent a good part of yesterday watching and reading about the shootings at Dawson College in Montreal
1) My deepest sympathies go out to the families and friends of all of those involved in the incident.
2) We should all be grateful that the situation wasn't even worse than it was
3) I agree with Mike over at rational reasons, give this one some time before politicizing it
that is all
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Part 1
While we are at it, here is an interesting quote from the article from my first post.
That's very interesting. Here is what Elhard's Boss- Brad Wall, the Conservative Leader of the Opposition had to say on this file a few months ago:
Elhard [the Conservative Party Critic] is now urging Calvert to slow down."If we can be a little more patient, take the prime minister at his word," he said. "If he says there's going to be change, we'll wait to see that happen."
People in Saskatchewan don't need to be convinced that a new equalization deal is a good idea, Elhard said.
First the Conservative Saskatchewan Party is all for pushing for equalization and now they are against pushing for it?
Well, Mr. Speaker, I’m not sure if you’ve heard, but the federal Liberal government
seems to be having their share of political challenges at the moment, and the likelihood of a spring election is increasing across the country. What better time to press for a better equalization deal for our province than right now?
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Equalization
The CBC reports that Premier Calvert may take on PMS and the Conservative MP's from Saskatchewan on the whole equalization deal.
Might I suggest an ad?
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When FDR made his famous speech "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself" that wasn't an endorsement of fear.
Bush and Harper seemed to have missed that point.
The tactic of the Republican Party is to use fear as a tool
And we are starting to see that here. With PMS's little September 11th chat with the nation.
The Republican Party will spend the next 30 days trying to make you afraid. It is the Republican midterm election strategy. For the rest of September, until the moment Republican leaders gavel the Congress into adjournment, Republican speakers will rise and implore the American people to be afraid. Republicans will call it security, and every time they do, just remember they are speaking in code. Republicans really mean insecurity.
It was better than PMPM calling on us to give him one more chance.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper and U.S. President George W. Bush took to the airwaves on the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks to remember the tragedy and in an attempt to bolster support for two unpopular battlefronts - Afghanistan and Iraq.
But only slightly.
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With a title like this I should get some traffic that I might not want :-)
So up in Saskatoon a few days ago some police officers were showing some young students how handcuffs work. The following is a clip from that exchange:
powered by ODEO
One of the children is obviously quite familier with handcuffs:
"My dad practices on my mom all the time!"
to which the police officer responds:
"Oh! How does your mom feel about that?"
Ah, the life of a police officer in Saskatoon.
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Over on Calgary Grit he made an interesting post about the Liberal leadership race. I particularly liked the following passage (Hat-tip: Lobster Thermidor):
"this led to some funny moments when candidates would say things like "we need to claw back agricultural subsidies by 0.2% over the next decade" and their supporters would burst into chants and applause. "
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Last year there was a report that the War on Terror was costing the US about 7 billion per month and we now know that the cost of Iraq alone has gone over 300 billion.
But the REAL cost of the War on Terror has been 62,000 deaths and 4.5 million refugees. There are estimates that the death toll could reach 180,000
the number of troops who have been killed are as follows:
US Troops killed in Afghanistan: 333
Coalition Troops killed : 232
US Troops killed in Iraq: : 2667
What has the US gotten for this price?
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As reported by ABC News, stunning military documents codenamed "Operation Northwoods" were declassified in recent years and show how in 1962, the top US military leaders planned an operation to create terror attacks against its own cities and kill US citizens.
Wanna guess how much coverage this gets on blogging torries?
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I was reading BigCityLib this morning (with his coverage of DeSmogBlog) and it occurred to me that I had heard of this group “The friends of science” before.
Yep. It turns out that a “a controversial conservative adman” will soon be lobbying on behalf
of The Friends of Science, which is “an action group opposed to the Kyoto Accord.”
Then last week came Bryan Thomas The Saskatchewan Party's advertising consultant said "wedge issue" ads were possible . And then came the kicker statement: "The name of the game is to find out that 20 per cent to 30 per cent, to find out who they are and to get inside their wee little heads and to find some way to reach out to them." Thomas was forced to resign and Hermanson went into damage control.
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Remember that whole Jason Kenney thing where he talked to a terrorist group:
Kenney is shown addressing an April 6 rally on Parliament Hill and is quoted as welcoming participants "on his own behalf as well as the prime minister."
On Thursday, Coderre accused Kenney of indulging in "demagogy against me" over the peace rally even though Coderre said he had denounced the show of support for Hezbollah "right away on the spot.""A terrorist group is a terrorist group so I'm expecting Jason Kenney, who likes to play politics and who's as subtle as Barney Rubble in politics, he should do better than that."
Kenney said he is well aware that the PMOI is also known as the MEK and is listed as a terrorist group.
"It really means that Jason Kenney is a hypocrite," New Democrat MP Peggy Nash said in an interview from Cairo. "He's speaking to an organization that's linked to a terrorist organization according to Canada and the U.S. State Department, and he's done it on the steps of Parliament Hill in the name of the Prime Minister,"
Kenney said Nash's criticisms are "utterly ridiculous." "Peggy Nash and company were explicitly talking about negotiations with Hezbollah, a banned illegal terrorist organization."I, of course, would never advocate the delisting of the MEK or the People's Mojahedin or any other organization deemed by our security and intelligence agencies to be a terrorist entity.
The basis for new offences in the Criminal Code that would make it a crime to:
- knowingly participate in, contribute to or facilitate the activities of a
terrorist group.
The participation or contribution itself does not have to be a criminal offence
So let's break down Kenney's situation:
83.18 (1) Every one who knowingly participates in or contributes to, directly or indirectly, any activity of a terrorist group for the purpose of enhancing the ability of any terrorist group to facilitate or carry out a terrorist activity is guilty of an indictable offence and liable to imprisonment for a term not exceeding ten years.
(2) An offence may be committed under subsection (1) whether or not
(a) a terrorist group actually facilitates or carries out a terrorist activity;
(b) the participation or contribution of the accused actually enhances the ability of a terrorist group to facilitate or carry out a terrorist activity; or
(c) the accused knows the specific nature of any terrorist activity that may be facilitated or carried out by a terrorist group.
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Jack Layton has called for the troops engaging in "combat activity" to be redeployed, most notable to the northern part of Afghanistan for peacekeeping missions.
It seems that there is growing evidence that this makes sense.
There is an umbrella organization of European Non-Profit Research Organization called the NEF
(see the list of organizations here). This umbrella organization has funded a number of smaller research organizations including the Senlis Council.
things to say about the situation in So this group, which is not a left-wing operation, not a pro-peace group, and not a member of the blogging dippers (in fact, probably doesn't even know who Jack Layton is) have some interestingAfghanistan:
source: Bloomberg
The Taliban is gaining ground in Afghanistan due to "misguided'' policies of the U.S.-led coalition and NATO that focus on fighting insurgents rather than combating poverty
Source: The Gaurdian
The highly critical study of the five years since the US-led invasion found that Afghans are starving to death despite international donor pledges and that the foreign military presence was "fuelling resentment and fear" among the local population.
Even the Rand Corporation is in on it:
Sourc: The Star
As an organization, I think the Taliban has actually become better at fighting," said Seth Jones, an expert on the insurgency who works for the Rand Corp., a U.S. think-tank.
In the treehouse, the neighborhood kids try to figure out what's up with
the adults.
Bart: So finally, we're all in agreement about what's going on with
the adults. Milhouse?
Milhouse: [steps up to blackboard] Ahem. OK, here's what we've got: the
Rand Corporation, in conjunction with the saucer people --
Bart: Thank you.
Milhouse: -- under the supervision of the reverse vampires --
Lisa: [sighs]
Milhouse: -- are forcing our parents to go to bed early in a fiendish
plot to eliminate the meal of dinner. [sotto voce] We're
through the looking glass, here, people...
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New Democratic Party
What PMS (Prime Minister Steve) Says:
What PMS Does:
This party will not take its position based on public opinion polls. We will not take a stand based on focus groups. We will not take a stand based on phone-in shows or householder surveys or any other vagaries of pubic opinion.
The Conservative government paid $85,446 just weeks after winning the federal election for an exhaustive public-opinion poll that critics say was unnecessary and appears designed to produce favourable partisan results rather than sound public policy.
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Harpocracy
The minute I read the press release from the NDP about the withdrawal of troops from combat operations in Afghanistan, I knew two things would happen.
1) The Right-wing Wank-o-sphere would accuse him of "cut[ing] and run[ning]" because they can't come up with any good lines themselves and they desperately want to ape BushCo and his band of slithering cronies.
2) The media would portray it as a complete withdrawal - not, as the press release says, a re-alignment of priorities with the troops. And of course, the right-wing blogosphere would follow this as the gospel truth. (side note: isn't it interesting that the same group of people who are always bemoaning the "MSM" are so quick to jump on the media's bandwagon when they are critical of the NDP?)
If only I hadn't been away for the weekend (and busy redesigning this site when I got back) if I had posted this on Friday, when the idea had came to me, then I could be proclaiming 100% prohecy right now:
1) Accusing Layton of "cut and run": Check
Steve Janke
Wundrick
That bastion of the liberal media bais the National Post
And of course, PM Steve-o himself
2) The media portraying it as a complete withdrawal: Check
For the record here is Layton's Statement: That's why I'm announcing that as a first step, New Democrats are calling for the withdrawal of Canadian troops from the combat mission in southern Afghanistan - Note there is nothing about withdrawing troops from the peacekeeping mission in Northern Afghanistan - why note "southern" if you are calling for a complete withdrawal?
The CBC
The CTV
Again, our friends at the National Post
At least the Globe got it a little bit right
"the party is calling for all of the troops currently engaged in Operation Athena in southern Afghanistan to return home to Canada as soon as possible. However, the soldiers based in the north as part of operations Archer and Argus would stay because their role is of a peacekeeping nature."
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I have received a number of e-mails telling me that my site looks, shall we say, "less-than-optimal" in Internet Explorer.
My first (and best) response is:
Get Firefox!
However, given that about 50% of my traffic (Yes, I checked!) comes from people who are using IE and they may be in a work environment where they can't get a better browser, I guess I will have to accommodate those people as well. *sigh*
Thus the site overhall that you see. This should also load faster for all concerned becasue the menus on the side are now drop down, go ahead, play with them ------>
Let me know if this one is better for you IE types out there.
Also I am trying some new code below:
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Via Crooks and Liers The media FINALY starts to call Donald Rumsfeld on his sh*t
It all started when Rummy was speaking to the 88th Annual American Legion National Convention in Salt Lake City, Utah on Tuesday. Rumsfeld compared war critics to "appeasers" in his speech.
"Indeed, in the decades before World War II, a great many argued that the fascist threat was exaggerated -- or that it was someone else’s problem"In other words, if you disagree with Bush and Co. Then you are a traitor.
*ahem*
The man who sees absolutes, where all other men see nuances and
shades of meaning, is either a prophet, or a quack.
Donald H. Rumsfeld is not a prophet.
Sadly, we have no Winston Churchills evident among us this evening. We have only Donald Rumsfelds, demonizing disagreement, the way Neville Chamberlain demonized Winston Churchill
Had he or his president perhaps proven any of their prior claims of omniscience - about Osama Bin Laden’s plans five years ago - about Saddam Hussein’s weapons four years ago - about Hurricane Katrina’s impact one year ago - we all might be able to swallow hard, and accept their omniscience as a bearable, even useful recipe, of fact, plus ego. But, to date, this government has proved little besides its own arrogance, and its own hubris.
Thus forgive me for reading Murrow in full:
"We must not confuse dissent with disloyalty," he said, in 1954. "We must remember always that accusation is not proof, and that conviction depends upon evidence and due process of law We will not walk in fear - one, of another. We will not be driven by fear into an age of un-reason, if we dig deep in our history and our doctrine, and remember that we are not descended from fearful men; Not from men who feared to write, to speak, to associate, and to defend causes that were - for the moment - unpopular."
And so, good night, and good luck.
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This list is far from complete and if you have a blog that fits the bill or know of a blog that fits the bill let me know and I will add it.