US Democracy in Action

And people think the rollcall votes in the House of Commons are backwards?

Saskatchewan Election Predictions - Part 3

This is the third in a series of 5 posts examining each of the 58 constituencies in the province of Saskatchewan and my analysis on the outcome of the next provincial election.

Part 1 - The South
Summary:

Sask Party: 9
NDP: 2

Part 2 - Regina
Summary:

NDP: 10
SP: 0
Too Close: 1

Central Saskatchewan

Not a good area for the NDP. Most of these seats have been SP for multiple elections and not much is going to change.

1. Kindersley

Margin of Victory for SP: 38%

This will be a SP hold.


2. Rosetown Elrose

Margin of Victory for SP: 46%

This will be a SP hold.


3. Biggar

Margin of Victory for SP: 17%

This will be a SP hold.


4. Arm-River Waterous

Margin of Victory for SP: 10%

NDP types point to this one as a pickup because the vote count was so close last time and they have a better candidate this time around. I don't see this mostly rural seat switching in this election. In fact, I see the percentage going quite a bit up for the SP. Remember that when you look at province-wide polling trends, a few hundred more votes in this seat doesn't help the Sask Party at all.

Prediction: Sask Party hold.


5. Humboldt

Margin of Victory for SP: 2%

This one is interesting, the NDP candidate has apparently been busting her butt in this seat, and she is a fairly well-known united church minister. The difference is popular vote last time was a statistical tie. I think this one is to close to call as well. If it looks like the NDP are going to pull it off, I can see this one switching over.

Prediction: To Close to Call


6. Kelvington Wadena

Margin of Victory for SP: 26%

This will be a SP hold.


7. Melfort

Margin of Victory for SP: 16%

This will be a SP hold.


8. Last-Mountian Touchwood

Margin of Victory for SP: 9%

Again, NDP types point to this one as a pickup because the vote count was so close last time , but they are running the same candidate. I don't see this one changing.

Prediction: Sask Party hold.


9. Melvile Saltcoats

Margin of Victory for SP: 7%

The 7% win here was an abnormality in the last election due to the incumbent Liberal cabinet minister from the coalition running as an NDP'r and the reappearance of Grant Schimdt. Unless something else goes crazy this election expect the SP margin to dramatically increase here. (again, remember that when province-wide polls come out)

This will be a SP hold.


10. Yorkton

Margin of Victory for NDP: 11%

Here is the interesting one. Was this seat NDP because of Clay Serby, or can they hold it with a new candidate. I think this is too close to call.

Prediction: To Close to Call


11. Canora Pelly

Margin of Victory for SP: 16%

This will be a SP hold.


Part 3 Summary:

NDP: 0
SP: 9
Too Close: 2

To-Date Summary:
NDP: 12
SP: 18
Too Close: 3

Check back for Part 4 - Saskatoon

Saskatchewan Election Predictions - Part 2

This is the second in a series of 5 posts examining each of the 58 constituencies in the province of Saskatchewan and my analysis on the outcome of the next provincial election.

Part 1 - The South
Summary:

Sask Party: 9
NDP: 2


Part 2 - Regina

1. Qu’Appelle Valley

Margin of Victory (2003) for NDP: 26%

I know there is some talk of this being a change-up seat but remember that the city polls in this riding (most of which are middle-income people) has gone up and the number of rural voters has gone down. The vote percentage will probably only be in the 5-10% range for the NDP but they will hold it.

This will be an NDP hold


2. Regina Walsh Acres

Margin of Victory for NDP: 40%

This will be an NDP hold.


3. Regina Northeast

Margin of Victory for NDP: 40%

This will be an NDP hold


4. Regina Coronation Park

Margin of Victory for NDP 40%

This will be an NDP hold


5. Regina Rosemont

Margin of Victory for NDP: 40%

I know that there has been some talk that this seat is a possible pickup for the Sask Party, but come on, the NDP got 63% to the SP 21% (three to one ratio). This seat isn't going to change hands.

Prediction: NDP Hold.


6. Elphinstone-Centre

Margin of Victory for NDP: 48%

This will be an NDP hold.


7. Regina Dewdney
Margin of Victory for NDP: 28%

This one is a bit of an interesting seat, in the past this seat has gone much closer to being a break-even split than in 2003. This has to be one of the SP top "to get" seats. That being said, I think this one is going to be close (and I was tempted to put it down as "too close to call") but for the time being I am giving it to the NDP. If polls come out in Regina saying that the NDP is slipping then this seat might go.

Prediction: Weak NDP Hold.


8. Regina Lakeview

Margin of Victory for NDP: 36%

This will be an NDP hold.


9. Douglas Park

Margin of Victory for NDP: 36%

This will be an NDP hold.


10. Regina South.

Margin of Victory for NDP: 22%

This is another seat that the SP have very obviously targeted. Even thought the margin of victory from a percentage perspective is lower than Dewdney, the total numbr of votes cast is much higher in South. Over 2000 more people voted NDP than SP in the last election. Make no mistake, the NDP vote is going to drop here, but some of that vote is going to go Liberal (which is might not in other seats). I think this seat is actually MORE safe than Dewdney.

Prediction: NDP Hold.


11. Wascana Planes

Margin of Victory for NDP: 5%

This is the one that the NDP are in trouble in in Regina. If it wasn't for the fact that the Sask Party candidate is the Regina Police Office, Christine Tell, who was investigated by the RCMP for disclosing personal information, and was eventually disciplined by the Regina Police, I would give this one to the SP. However, their candidate has become a liability in my opinion.

Prediction: To close to call (but leaning SP)


Part 2 Summary:

NDP: 10
SP: 0
Too Close: 1

To-Date Summary:
NDP: 12
SP: 9
Too Close: 1


Check back tomorrow for part 3 - central Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan Election Predictions - Part 1

This will be the first in a series of 5 posts examining each of the 58 constituencies in the province of Saskatchewan and my analysis on the outcome of the next provincial election.

Part 1 - The South

Overall the souther seats in the province are rock-solid Sask Party seats. There is not much evidence that is going to change in the next election.

1: Cypress Hills

Margin of victory for SP: 45%

This will remain SP


2: Wood River

Margin of victory for SP: 30%

This will remain SP


3: Weyburn Big-Muddy

Margin of Victory (2003) for SP: 5%

Of course the SP did much better in the by-election but I would be very surprised if they held those numbers in a general election. That being said, I would also be pretty surprised if the vote count changed so much that the Sask Party lost the seat.

Prediction: Sask Party


4: Estevan

Margin of victory for SP: 20%

This will remain SP


5: Cannington

Margin of victory for SP: 50%

This will remain SP


6: Swift Current

Margin of victory for SP: 22%

This will remain SP


7: Thunder Creek

Margin of victory for SP: 23%

Now this seat will be interesting as Rick Swenson, the leader of the PC party, will almost certainly be running here. This will no doubt take some votes away from the Sask Party candidate. That being said, I doubt it will take 23% of the vote away.

Prediction: Sask Party.


8: Moose Jaw Wakamow

Margin of victory for the NDP: 32%

This will remain NDP


9: Moose Jaw North

Margin of victory for the NDP: 23%

This normally would be a slam dunk for the NDP but there is some issue with the MLA from this riding having stepped down from cabinet in the spring. That being said, he has been the MLA for 20 years and the NDP have always gotten over 20% margin of victory here so I am safe in predicting an NDP hold.

Prediction: NDP


10: Indian-Head Milestone

Margin of victory for SP: 10%

This is something of a swing seat but the incumbent is a fairly high-profile Sask Party MLA and the trend in the area is twards the SP so it is reasonable to assume they will keep this seat.

Prediction: Sask Party.


11: Moosomin

Margin of victory for SP: 29%

This will remain SP


Summary:

Sask Party: 9
NDP: 2

Check back tomorrow for Part 2: Regina.

Dick Cheney is Pure, Utter Evil.

This is just too much:

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Vice President Dick Cheney had at one point considered asking Israel to launch limited missile strikes at an Iranian nuclear site to provoke a retaliation, Newsweek magazine reported on Sunday.

A military response by Iran could give Washington an excuse to then launch airstrikes of its own, Newsweek said.

---

This guy is nuts.

SDAP Goes Crazy

This will probably be the last post that I ever make regarding SDAP and the Heritage party because at this point we are just feeding the Troll's ego.

That being said, you have to check this out, Lance busts the guy hard (you have to read all the comments to get the full gist of it) and then the guy goes nutzo over at Murney's blog to the point where he has to cancel comments entirely. And then he goes even more nuts over on Saskboy's blog (again read the comments for a good laugh)

I particularly like the party where he starts ending his posts with "Legal Office Saskatchewan Democratic Action Party" like that matters. He accuses Lance of not existing (or of being some other guy) and photoshoping records, he accuses people of faking a Saskatchewan gazette, accuses other bloggers of not being real people, and he basically just goes completely off the deep end.

This guy is mentally unbalanced to say the least.

Update: So then I get this e-mail:

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21 September 2007

Smarten up...

We are inviting you to take down the Libel you are posting and we'll
consider ignoring the behavior...

We'll be posting on political issues when ever and where ever they
appear as is our right as a registered political party.

If you figure you're just begin clever or that you are serving your
political party, consider that you aren't blogging to one of your
buddies, but you are attacking a registered political party. There
are legal ramifications to your libel.

Standard Legal: You have 30 days to remove the Libel against the SDAP
from all of your sites and pay us $250,000 for damage to our
reputation or legal action may be taken against you. It is our
opinion that your behavior has damaged our reputation and we believe
this is worth the amount above. Each day that passes we will consider
to be an aggravation of the damages you are creating with your libel.

Saskatchewan Democratic Action Party.

This correspondence is private communication between the Saskatchewan
Democratic Action Party and its recipient.

---

The message was sent from "Saskatchewan Democratic Action Party: sdap@accesscomm.ca" with the orignating IP of 65.87.230.25

Koo Koo, Koo Koo.

Nutter.

Uperdate: I am moving to comment moderation to stop the spam.

Liberal MP Donations Vs. NDP MP Donations

Nice little Canadian Press story:

---

Still reeling from Monday's humiliating byelection losses, Liberals are turning their attention to another horror story - their dismal fundraising record.
...
Only 29 per cent of Liberal MPs have donated to the party and almost none of their staff members.

---

Wow! I don't understand how you can be a Liberal MP and NOT make a single donation to the Party.

Let's take at look at the NDP. Each MP and how many times they donated in 2006 (for example)

Jack Layton - 13 times
Charlie Angus - 14 times
Alex Atamanenko - 7 times
Catherine Bell - 14 times
Denis Bevington - 13 times
Dawn Black - 11 times
Bill Blaikie - 15 times
Chris Charlton - 3 times
Olivia Chow - 14 times
David Christopherson - 13 times
Joe Comartin - 13 times
Jean Crowder - 15 times
Nathan Cullen - 13 times
Libby Davies - 12 times
Paul Dewar - 12 times
Yvon Godin - 11 times
Peter Julian - 15 times
Wayne Marston - 13 times
Pat Martin - 13 times
Tony Martin - 16 times
Brian Masse - 12 times
Irene Mathyssen - 13 times
Alexa McDonough - 14 times
Peggy Nash - 13 times
Penny Priddy - 12 times
Denise Savoie - 14 times
Bil Siksay - 16 times
Peter Stoffer - 12 times
Judy Wasylycia-Leis - 14 times.

So that is 100% of the NDP caucus making a donation. Sure, most of them are on a monthly donation system but still, recall that only 29% of Liberal MP's made ANY donation at all.

Now by Wikipedia's count there are 96 Liberal MPs. So 29% of that is 28 MPs who have donated.

So assuming the trend holds from last year MORE NDP MPS WILL HAVE MADE CONTRIBUTIONS THAN LIBERAL MPS. And we only have 1/3 as many MPs.

Yeah, I don't know why the Liberal Party is in trouble.

SDAP Troll busted!

This may be the only time I link to Catprint in the Mash, but when you pull off a bust this good, it deserves to be recognized.

It turns our that the so-called "Saskatchewan Democratic Action Party" that has made comments in Saskatchewan blogs that include statements about 36,000 members and getting 60% of the vote in the next election is actually just a front for the Heratige Party that got 36 votes in the last by-election and has, like, 6 members province wide.

From now on, following the long established policy of this blog, I will only allow people to post with their real identity if they are using a cover to troll. So SDAP, post under your real name and/or party from now on here.

Update:
http://www.qp.gov.sk.ca/documents/gazette/part1/2007/G1200737.pdf

The Election Act, 1996 [clause 223(b)]
________
NOTICE OF AMENDMENT
Pursuant to clause 233(b) of The Election Act, 1996, notice is hereby given of an amendment to the name of the Saskatchewan Heritage Party to the Saskatchewan Democratic Action Party and the abbreviation of the name of the registered party to Saskatchewan Democratic Action Party – SDAP. Dated at Regina, Saskatchewan, this 4th day of September 2007.

Jean Ouellet,
Chief Electoral Officer.

New Simpsons Game

The Simpson's fan in me just had to post this one:

In stores November 1st

Sask Party Candidate makes odd comment about Jewish People

So buckdog had this great post on Serge LeClerk, the new Sask Party candidate in Saskatoon:

---

Saskatchewan Party Candidate Takes Heat For Calling Charter of Rights And Freedoms 'A Piece Of Garbage'

A candidate for the Opposition Saskatchewan Party has been challenged to explain comments he has made concerning the Charter of Rights And Freedoms

---

Well it turns out that Mr. LeCerk has a couple more interesting things to say in his book "Untwisted" available on his website here, (copyright 2007) but I don't know that the Sask Party would want them brought to people's attention.

On Page 11, Mr. LeCerk has this to say:

---

And then there were the Sheeney Men, Jewish men with long black coats, black hats, and curls, who came down the street with their horse-drawn wagons.

---

"Sheeny" Men!

For those of you not in the know, I point you to dictionary.com. Sheeny can mean one of two things:

---

adjective, sheen·i·er, sheen·i·est.
shining; lustrous

---

or:

---

n. pl. shee·nies Offensive Slang
Used as a disparaging term for a Jew.

---

I will give you one choice as to which meaning Mr. LeClerk meant. I guess he could have meant shining Jews, but is that likely?

Which Middle East country remembered 9/11? (Answer may surprise you)

Which Middle East country held spontaneous candlelight vigils for victims of the World Trade Center Attack on 9/11?

• Kuwait - No.
• Saudi Arabia - No.
• Qumar - No.
  
• Israel - No.
• Iraq - No.
  
• Iran - Yes.

Read more here

Sask Party / PC Merger?

There is some evidence that shows that former Sask Party leader Elwin Hermanson approached the leader of the PC Party to discuss a merger between the two parties.

Why?

Follow the money.

According to the Sworn Affidavit of Rick Swenson (the PC Leader) after the 2003 election campaign he was approached by Hermanson to discuss merging the two parties together.

His sworn testimony is as follows:

(See the full affidavit here on the Sask NDP website)

So it is all about the money.

Perhaps that explains this story today:

---

The Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan Trust Fund was set up in 1981 from contributions from the party "for the purpose of insuring the long-term survival and existence of the Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan," according to the deed.

In 1997, with the formation of the Saskatchewan Party by Tory and Liberal MLAs, the PC party amended its constitution to allow the party to become inactive for two consecutive provincial elections.

During that time, the fund continued to disperse money to the party.

Swenson alleges funding was cut off when members of its board began discussing revival of the party.

---

Read more about this issue here and here

What happens when Democrats spot a backbone...

hat tip: crooks and liers

Russia has a new Prime Minister

From BBC News

---

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted the resignation of PM Mikhail Fradkov and nominated a financial crime investigator to replace him.

Victor Zubkov, head of the federal financial monitoring service, is a relative unknown in Russian politics.

The change marks a major political shake-up ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections.

---

snip

---

Russian media had been speculating that First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov - long considered a frontrunner for the presidency - could have been about to be made prime minister.

---

What the Saskatchewan Democratic Action Party stands for...

So a poster who goes under the name "Saskatchewan Democratic Action Party" has been posting spam on my site and others'. When challenged over on John Murney's blog the poster had this to say:

---

With our current membership of over 36 thousand members and growing, asking us who we are would fill several pages of your blogs here.

---

So they claim to have over 36,000 members. Which is pretty impressive for a group I had never heard of until they started posting on my blog. So I started trying to find out about them.

And them I came across the best electoral Youtube Video ever. This beats the wolf in sheep's clothing video hands down. It conclusively explains what the SDAP stands for.





I am laughing so hard I hurt right now.

Oh, and in case you want to go to an event and actually, you know, meet one of these 36,000 members, you just have to look at thier event calendar here.

Busy guys.

Update: As it turns out the guy who is running this is a total and complete nutjob, I mean, call-the-men-it-white-coats-crazy. See this post for the full scoop

It has got to bug them that this blog post is the number on google hit for "Saskatchewan Democratic Action Party"

Ha Ha.

Why Fred Thompson has his work cut out for him

So from the mouth of Peggy Noonan herself (Regan's former speachwriter and senior adviser to Bush senior).

---

For Fred Thompson, spurning the debate and announcing on Leno was rude and shrewd. He loped on like a long, tall, folksy fella and got a good burst of applause from the audience when he said he was running. The Web video was fine, the 60-second commercial unveiled Wednesday too self-consciously presidential. A young journalist brutally remarked to me of the makeup and lighting, "He looks like a skull on a Disney pirate ride."

He faces three big challenges. He has come in saying, essentially, I'm not the other guys. That's good, but raises the questions: Who are you? And the reason you're running for president would be . . .?

Second challenge: You can come to the rescue only when someone calls "Help!" You can save the drowning guy only when he falls through the ice; you can't do it when he's skating by and giving you a friendly nod. Three and six months ago, the Republican Party was looking at its slate of candidates and shouting, "Help!" Since then, the candidates have been out there making an impression, getting known, declaring their stands. They've found supporters.

Is the party still yelling "Help!"? Is it falling through the ice?

A third challenge, I think, is a certain dissonance in Mr. Thompson's persona. He seems preoccupied, not full of delight that he's at the party. John McCain has been having sly fun with the idea of Mr. Thompson's sluggishness. When asked why Mr. Thompson didn't come to the debate, Mr. McCain said "Maybe we're up past his bedtime."

---

Hah! Love the snark at the end. Bedtime indeed. If I was a Republican (And I SOOOOOO wouldn't be,) I would probably be a McCain supporter.

Irony

In case you can't read the sign it says:

"If you don't have GIO Third Party Property Insurance, we suggest you don't hit this bus"

A refrigerator that runs without electricity?

This is just in the experimental stage obviously, but if this can be developed as a working product, think of the reduction in power consumption!

---

First, the technology is potentially more energy-efficient than the alternatives. It only really uses energy to move the magnetic field to and from the magnetic material. The model currently under development produces the magnetic field through a system of powerful blocks of magnets similar to those we use on our refrigerator doors, only stronger. These do not get worn out, and thus do not need replacing, which is very good for the environment.

This leads to the second major benefit, namely the fluid, which could turn out to be just plain water. Consequently, there would not be the same environmental impact as with today’s compressor-based refrigerators. The third great potential difference is the noise level. Bahl expects their demonstration model, which should be ready in 2010, to be practically silent. The opportunities are obvious.

“It is probably not realistic to think that magnetic cooling technology will be used in consumers’ homes right away. Manufacturers have spent too many years streamlining the prices of the existing refrigerators. Initially, it will be about implementation in various types of niche applications – large-scale refrigerating plants, soda machines or places where a noise-free environment is important,” says Bahl, adding, however, that he believes it will ultimately spread to the rest of society.

---

The Cost of War

McDonalds, then and now

Commercials have always been a little weird.

This is the first McDonalds' commercial ever.

And this is a more, uh, modern one.




And the strangest ad of all here

Great High School Prank

And typical overreaction from the principal:

---

A high school student who tricked football fans from a crosstown rival into holding up signs that together spelled out, "We Suck," was suspended and banned temporarily from extracurricular activities for the prank, according to the school's principal.

---

This seems to me to be a pretty harmless prank that took a lot of work to get of the ground.

---

Kyle Garchar, a senior at Hilliard Davidson High School in suburban Columbus, said he spent about 20 hours over three days plotting the trick, which was captured on video and posted on the video-sharing Web site YouTube. He said he was inspired by a similar prank pulled by Yale students in 2004, when Harvard fans were duped into holding up cards with the same message.

---

Here is the video



And here is a news interview with the prankster.