Saskatchewan Election Predictions - Part 1
This will be the first in a series of 5 posts examining each of the 58 constituencies in the province of Saskatchewan and my analysis on the outcome of the next provincial election.
Part 1 - The South
Overall the souther seats in the province are rock-solid Sask Party seats. There is not much evidence that is going to change in the next election.
1: Cypress Hills
Margin of victory for SP: 45%
This will remain SP
2: Wood River
Margin of victory for SP: 30%
This will remain SP
3: Weyburn Big-Muddy
Margin of Victory (2003) for SP: 5%
Of course the SP did much better in the by-election but I would be very surprised if they held those numbers in a general election. That being said, I would also be pretty surprised if the vote count changed so much that the Sask Party lost the seat.
Prediction: Sask Party
4: Estevan
Margin of victory for SP: 20%
This will remain SP
5: Cannington
Margin of victory for SP: 50%
This will remain SP
6: Swift Current
Margin of victory for SP: 22%
This will remain SP
7: Thunder Creek
Margin of victory for SP: 23%
Now this seat will be interesting as Rick Swenson, the leader of the PC party, will almost certainly be running here. This will no doubt take some votes away from the Sask Party candidate. That being said, I doubt it will take 23% of the vote away.
Prediction: Sask Party.
8: Moose Jaw Wakamow
Margin of victory for the NDP: 32%
This will remain NDP
9: Moose Jaw North
Margin of victory for the NDP: 23%
This normally would be a slam dunk for the NDP but there is some issue with the MLA from this riding having stepped down from cabinet in the spring. That being said, he has been the MLA for 20 years and the NDP have always gotten over 20% margin of victory here so I am safe in predicting an NDP hold.
Prediction: NDP
10: Indian-Head Milestone
Margin of victory for SP: 10%
This is something of a swing seat but the incumbent is a fairly high-profile Sask Party MLA and the trend in the area is twards the SP so it is reasonable to assume they will keep this seat.
Prediction: Sask Party.
11: Moosomin
Margin of victory for SP: 29%
This will remain SP
Summary:
Sask Party: 9
NDP: 2
Check back tomorrow for Part 2: Regina.
4 comments:
Nice work. I look forward to reading the rest of your predictions.
I generally agree with your predictions thus far as I do not see much chance of an SP seat swinging NDP this round.
I would like to know what criteria you are using to make your predictions? I.e. the last round of polling, gut instinct, or do you have intel on the groung?
well duh of course the SP is going to hold Swift Current. Brad Will win 40% of the vote this time because he is Leader.
So far, I would agree with you!
My criteria is taking the results of the last election and then attempting to calculate the "swing" vote. Ie. if the Sask Party do 10% better than last time, 15% better, etc.
Then I factor in my knowledge of the local scene (who the candidates are etc)
It's a little bit of math, little bit of instinct.
Although you have no way of knowing it (because I wasn't blogging) I predicted the outcome of 56 our of 58 seats correctly in the last election so I must be doing something right :-)
As for the "obvious" choices (like Wall in Swift Current), I have to post those as well for the complete list.
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