Saskatchewan Election Predictions - Part 2
This is the second in a series of 5 posts examining each of the 58 constituencies in the province of Saskatchewan and my analysis on the outcome of the next provincial election.
Part 1 - The South
Summary:
Sask Party: 9
NDP: 2
Part 2 - Regina
1. Qu’Appelle Valley
Margin of Victory (2003) for NDP: 26%
I know there is some talk of this being a change-up seat but remember that the city polls in this riding (most of which are middle-income people) has gone up and the number of rural voters has gone down. The vote percentage will probably only be in the 5-10% range for the NDP but they will hold it.
This will be an NDP hold
2. Regina Walsh Acres
Margin of Victory for NDP: 40%
This will be an NDP hold.
3. Regina Northeast
Margin of Victory for NDP: 40%
This will be an NDP hold
4. Regina Coronation Park
Margin of Victory for NDP 40%
This will be an NDP hold
5. Regina Rosemont
Margin of Victory for NDP: 40%
I know that there has been some talk that this seat is a possible pickup for the Sask Party, but come on, the NDP got 63% to the SP 21% (three to one ratio). This seat isn't going to change hands.
Prediction: NDP Hold.
6. Elphinstone-Centre
Margin of Victory for NDP: 48%
This will be an NDP hold.
7. Regina Dewdney
Margin of Victory for NDP: 28%
This one is a bit of an interesting seat, in the past this seat has gone much closer to being a break-even split than in 2003. This has to be one of the SP top "to get" seats. That being said, I think this one is going to be close (and I was tempted to put it down as "too close to call") but for the time being I am giving it to the NDP. If polls come out in Regina saying that the NDP is slipping then this seat might go.
Prediction: Weak NDP Hold.
8. Regina Lakeview
Margin of Victory for NDP: 36%
This will be an NDP hold.
9. Douglas Park
Margin of Victory for NDP: 36%
This will be an NDP hold.
10. Regina South.
Margin of Victory for NDP: 22%
This is another seat that the SP have very obviously targeted. Even thought the margin of victory from a percentage perspective is lower than Dewdney, the total numbr of votes cast is much higher in South. Over 2000 more people voted NDP than SP in the last election. Make no mistake, the NDP vote is going to drop here, but some of that vote is going to go Liberal (which is might not in other seats). I think this seat is actually MORE safe than Dewdney.
Prediction: NDP Hold.
11. Wascana Planes
Margin of Victory for NDP: 5%
This is the one that the NDP are in trouble in in Regina. If it wasn't for the fact that the Sask Party candidate is the Regina Police Office, Christine Tell, who was investigated by the RCMP for disclosing personal information, and was eventually disciplined by the Regina Police, I would give this one to the SP. However, their candidate has become a liability in my opinion.
Prediction: To close to call (but leaning SP)
Part 2 Summary:
NDP: 10
SP: 0
Too Close: 1
To-Date Summary:
NDP: 12
SP: 9
Too Close: 1
Check back tomorrow for part 3 - central Saskatchewan
9 comments:
Very interesting - We are starting to diverge here. I would put Wascana Planes in the SP category despite the candidates problems. I am not sure her lack of judgment resonates strong enough with voters - especially if voters want change.
Also, Regina-South was a Thomson/NDP seat. It has always had a strong conservative tendency. In 2003, the Liberals had a better candidate and the NDP had an incumbent. This time around, the Tories have a candidate with better name recognition. SP will take it.
Thanks for commenting on your criteria - predictions always have an element of instinct. It is why I dislike (although I read feverishly) sites like democraticspace.com that "objectively" tries to determine seat counts.
I sympathize with your comment about Wascana Planes but the NDP haven't even nominated a candidate yet. I am leaving it the too close to call column until at least that happens.
As for South, I know that you are going with the conventional thinking but I don't buy it.
Thomson was only a cabinet minister for about 11 months before the last election (and only a junior one at that) - he only became high-profile when he was the Education minister and then Finance minister (and that was all in this term). I don't think his name was worth 2000 votes. Maybe a couple of hundred but that is about it.
Sorry, both Wascana Planes and Dewdney will fall before South.
Thanks for the analysis. But it's Wascana PLAINS, isn't it?
Yep. I copied from wheatsheaf.
My bad :-)
I think the SP will pick up Regina South, and Regina Wascana Plains, Regina Qu'Appelle Valley and Regina Rosemont are too close to call. I think RWP is between the NDP and the SP, Regina Qu'Appelle Valley is a 3 way race, and Regina Rosemont is between the NDP and the Liberals.
Oh, come ON John. Rosemont of rhte Liberals? Last election the NDP got 4,226 votes and the Liberals got 990 (It was the 8th best result for the NDP in the entire province). You are telling me that over 2000 voters in one constituency are going to shift from the NDP to the Liberals, in a seat that the NDP has never lost in the history of the province (the entire seat was represented by NDP MLA's even after 1982)? Keeping in mind that this would represent a TRIPLEing of the Liberal popular vote in this seat when their province-wide trends are not statistically different that 2003.
You are smoking something fierce my friend.
No Mouse, you are the delusional one!
The Sask Liberals captured almost 15% of the vote in Regina Rosemont with a paper candidate. Just imagine what will happen with a full effort!
Oh, and also watch Regina Qu'Appelle Valley very closely!
"The Sask Liberals captured almost 15% of the vote in Regina Rosemont with a paper candidate. Just imagine what will happen with a full effort!"
Um..... 16% of the vote?
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