Saskatchewan Election Predictions - Part 3

This is the third in a series of 5 posts examining each of the 58 constituencies in the province of Saskatchewan and my analysis on the outcome of the next provincial election.

Part 1 - The South
Summary:

Sask Party: 9
NDP: 2

Part 2 - Regina
Summary:

NDP: 10
SP: 0
Too Close: 1

Central Saskatchewan

Not a good area for the NDP. Most of these seats have been SP for multiple elections and not much is going to change.

1. Kindersley

Margin of Victory for SP: 38%

This will be a SP hold.


2. Rosetown Elrose

Margin of Victory for SP: 46%

This will be a SP hold.


3. Biggar

Margin of Victory for SP: 17%

This will be a SP hold.


4. Arm-River Waterous

Margin of Victory for SP: 10%

NDP types point to this one as a pickup because the vote count was so close last time and they have a better candidate this time around. I don't see this mostly rural seat switching in this election. In fact, I see the percentage going quite a bit up for the SP. Remember that when you look at province-wide polling trends, a few hundred more votes in this seat doesn't help the Sask Party at all.

Prediction: Sask Party hold.


5. Humboldt

Margin of Victory for SP: 2%

This one is interesting, the NDP candidate has apparently been busting her butt in this seat, and she is a fairly well-known united church minister. The difference is popular vote last time was a statistical tie. I think this one is to close to call as well. If it looks like the NDP are going to pull it off, I can see this one switching over.

Prediction: To Close to Call


6. Kelvington Wadena

Margin of Victory for SP: 26%

This will be a SP hold.


7. Melfort

Margin of Victory for SP: 16%

This will be a SP hold.


8. Last-Mountian Touchwood

Margin of Victory for SP: 9%

Again, NDP types point to this one as a pickup because the vote count was so close last time , but they are running the same candidate. I don't see this one changing.

Prediction: Sask Party hold.


9. Melvile Saltcoats

Margin of Victory for SP: 7%

The 7% win here was an abnormality in the last election due to the incumbent Liberal cabinet minister from the coalition running as an NDP'r and the reappearance of Grant Schimdt. Unless something else goes crazy this election expect the SP margin to dramatically increase here. (again, remember that when province-wide polls come out)

This will be a SP hold.


10. Yorkton

Margin of Victory for NDP: 11%

Here is the interesting one. Was this seat NDP because of Clay Serby, or can they hold it with a new candidate. I think this is too close to call.

Prediction: To Close to Call


11. Canora Pelly

Margin of Victory for SP: 16%

This will be a SP hold.


Part 3 Summary:

NDP: 0
SP: 9
Too Close: 2

To-Date Summary:
NDP: 12
SP: 18
Too Close: 3

Check back for Part 4 - Saskatoon